Expected Saves Tonight

← Back The number every goalie-pool lock-in comes down to — projected save totals, not just who starts. Built from our own shot ledger and our projection model, frozen before the puck, graded every night against the league boxscore. First grades land as tonight’s finals post — every projection and range from here is on the record.

Method: two estimators averaged — projected goals against converted through the goalie’s regressed save%, and the opponent’s own-scraped shot volume scaled to each night’s pace. Shot fuel: our per-game shot ledger. SV%: our box-score ledger, shrunk to the league mean for thin samples. The range spans the game’s genuine uncertainty — wider when the two estimators disagree, never tighter than a normal night’s swing — and every night is graded IN/OUT against it. Empty-net goals and late pulls are the noise every model carries; the graded record is what we’re actually worth. Confirmed starters →