NHL Playoff Odds
Not a points projection — a simulated season: every remaining game replayed 1,000 times against the real CBA playoff format. Violet numbers are projections, refreshed every six hours. Last run: 11/12/2026, 10:58:44 PM ET.
Read more — how the odds are built
The simulation runs on the same graded game model the Ledger audits: a Maher (1982) attack-defence Poisson with a FiveThirtyEight-style cross-season prior and Muffin-regression-style shot-volume regression, road back-to-backs worth 0.5 fewer expected goals. Each run applies the actual format — top 3 per division plus two wild cards per conference — and points then goal difference break ties. The model's live hit rates, not a backtest, are on the Ledger.
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | Proj pts | Make playoffs odds | Win division odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | 118.1 | 100% | 100% |
| 2 |  TBL | 102.7 | 98.5% | 93% |
| 3 |  NJD | 100.9 | 98.2% | 97.1% |
| 4 |  BOS | 94.8 | 89.7% | 69% |
| 5 |  MTL | 93.4 | 86.4% | 56.6% |
| 6 |  FLA | 88.7 | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 7 |  OTT | 88.1 | 64.6% | 29% |
| 8 |  WSH | 85.4 | 54.6% | 44.6% |
| 9 |  NYR | 83.1 | 43.5% | 33% |
| 10 |  BUF | 84.7 | 41.9% | 15.8% |
| 11 |  NYI | 76.7 | 16.6% | 10.6% |
| 12 |  PIT | 76.4 | 14.2% | 8.7% |
| 13 |  DET | 76.9 | 12.4% | 3.3% |
| 14 |  CBJ | 73.3 | 7.4% | 4.6% |
| 15 |  TOR | 71.3 | 3% | 0.5% |
| 16 |  PHI | 66.9 | 1.8% | 1.4% |
Western Conference
| # | Team | Proj pts | Make playoffs odds | Win division odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | 106 | 99.8% | 96.8% |
| 2 |  VGK | 98.3 | 99.4% | 99.2% |
| 3 |  COL | 101.5 | 99.2% | 88.7% |
| 4 |  EDM | 97 | 98.2% | 97.8% |
| 5 |  DAL | 94 | 90.4% | 53.5% |
| 6 |  UTA | 91.3 | 84.6% | 38.1% |
| 7 |  NSH | 85.8 | 64.6% | 16.8% |
| 8 |  ANA | 80 | 51.9% | 48.6% |
| 9 |  WPG | 79.8 | 27.3% | 3.6% |
| 10 |  LAK | 74.1 | 22.8% | 20% |
| 11 |  STL | 78.5 | 22.4% | 2.5% |
| 12 |  SEA | 74 | 21.1% | 19.2% |
| 13 |  SJS | 70.1 | 9.2% | 7.1% |
| 14 |  CGY | 70.6 | 9.1% | 8.1% |
| 15 |  CHI | 52.9 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 |  VAN | 46 | 0% | 0% |
Tiebreaks use points then goal difference; the league seeds the first tiebreak on regulation+OT wins, so borderline teams can read a point or two optimistic. Odds are model output, not betting advice. See the Ledger for the game model's audited track record.