The Model Liked the Bad Guys — and the Bad Guys Won
November 3, 2026
Eleven games, eleven projections frozen before puck drop.
What mattered
What mattered on the board tonight.
- The misses were the popular teams. Montreal was the night’s strongest conviction at 69 percent and lost 5-4 to Winnipeg.
- One night is eleven games, which in statistics is barely a word yet. What gets graded over the next two months is not the scoreboard but the distribution: whether the 70 percent teams actually win seventy percent of the time.
Slate at a glance
The whole slate at a glance.
| Final | The model said | Win % | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA 3 at TOR 2 | TOR slight edge | 47% | ✗ Miss |
| WPG 5 at MTL 4 | MTL strong favorite | 69% | ✗ Miss |
| TBL 4 at DET 2 | TBL slight edge | 49% | ✓ Winner |
| NJD 4 at EDM 3 | EDM slight edge | 48% | ✗ Miss |
| NYR 3 at STL 1 | Coin flip | ~50% | ✗ Miss |
| MIN 4 at PHI 2 | MIN 4-3 projected | 71% | ✓ Winner |
| VGK 3 at PIT 2 | VGK 3-2 projected | 49% | ✓ Winner |
| DAL 6 at WSH 5 | DAL 2-2 coin flip | 46% | ✓ Winner |
| CBJ 7 at COL 2 | COL strong road favorite | 67% | ✗ Miss |
| NSH 4 at CAR 1 | CAR strong favorite | 69% | ✗ Miss |
| ANA 5 at VAN 4 | ANA 4-3 projected | 54% | ✓ Winner |
The model’s night
The picks, graded while still warm.
The hits came where nobody else was looking. Minnesota beat Philadelphia 4-2 on a night the Flyers owned the popular opinion; the model had given the Wild 71 percent anyway. Anaheim won a five-goal game in Vancouver the way the model said it would, just one goal short on the arithmetic. Dallas, Vegas and Tampa all won the close ones the model had them in, and three of the night’s five hits were decided by a single goal.
Pro Hockey Stats models the NHL in public. Every pick is graded on the Ledger, no deletions.