Sleeper Surges: P. Tomasino at 9x

P. Tomasino went from one point in nine games last season to 4 points in 4 (1.00 points per game) over the last 14 days, a 9x jump, and D. Doughty leads all listed players for a second straight check at 7 points in 5 (1.40 points per game). Below are tonight’s five new surges, the nine carryovers still holding their pace, and the two names that drop off the list.

The slate had breadth: 24 players finished the window at double their baseline, so these five are the fastest of the group. Los Angeles supplied the most of any club, with Doughty carrying over while J. Armia, Q. Byfield, E. Gustafsson and T. Moore each posted 3 or more points in 6.

Fresh flags

The five quickest risers, each at 0.3 points per game or less before this run and at least double it now.

P. Tomasino (Ottawa) has 4 points in 4 games, 1.00 points per game. His season began inside the window, and his last full stretch of NHL games produced 1 point in 9. Nine times that pace is the largest gap on the board tonight.

J. Christiansen (Columbus) has 3 points in 6 games (0.50 points per game) after 1 point through his first 8. That runs 4x his 0.13 mark from earlier in the season.

M. Barron (Winnipeg) has 5 points in 7 games (0.71 points per game). He carried 2 points through 11 games before the window, a 0.18 pace now running just under 4x.

P. Mintyukov (Anaheim) has 4 points in 5 games (0.80 points per game) after 2 points in his first 9. He sits at 3.6x his 0.22 baseline.

N. Cates (Philadelphia) has 3 points in 6 games (0.50 points per game) against 2 points in his opening 13. That is 3.25x the 0.15 pace he set before the window.

Holding the line

The nine carryovers, each still at 0.7 points per game or better across the current 14-day window.

D. Doughty (Los Angeles) leads the carryovers at 7 points in 5 (1.40 points per game), listed since November 7, with J. Drysdale (Philadelphia) next at 7 points in 6 (1.17), listed since November 6. K. Dach (Montreal), E. Cernak (Tampa Bay), J. St. Ivany (Washington), S. Vilmanis (Florida) and A. Protas (Washington) all hold exactly 1.00 points per game, first flagged between November 5 and November 8. F. Xhekaj (Montreal) and E. Del Mastro (Chicago) close the group at 3 points in 4 (0.75 points per game) each, listed since November 8 and November 6.

Off the list

Carryovers leave when their 14-day pace falls below 0.7 points per game.

N. Acciari (Philadelphia) and M. Anderson (Los Angeles) both stayed at 3 points in 6 (0.50 points per game) on this morning’s recheck, under the retention line one day after first being flagged.

The surge board

All 14 listed players: five new names by ratio, nine carryovers by 14-day pace.

Player	Team	GP	P	PPG (14d)	Baseline PPG	Ratio	Status
P. Tomasino	OTT	4	4	1.00	0.11	3.0+	New
J. Christiansen	CBJ	6	3	0.50	0.13	3.0+	New
M. Barron	WPG	7	5	0.71	0.18	3.0+	New
P. Mintyukov	ANA	5	4	0.80	0.22	3.0+	New
N. Cates	PHI	6	3	0.50	0.15	3.0+	New
D. Doughty	LAK	5	7	1.40	0.11	3.0+	Since Nov 7
J. Drysdale	PHI	6	7	1.17	0.15	3.0+	Since Nov 6
K. Dach	MTL	4	4	1.00	0.18	3.0+	Since Nov 8
E. Cernak	TBL	5	5	1.00	0.18	3.0+	Since Nov 8
J. St. Ivany	WSH	5	5	1.00	0.00	off the map	Since Nov 5
S. Vilmanis	FLA	5	5	1.00	0.18	3.0+	Since Nov 7
A. Protas	WSH	5	5	1.00	0.20	3.0+	Since Nov 7
F. Xhekaj	MTL	4	3	0.75	0.00	off the map	Since Nov 8
E. Del Mastro	CHI	4	3	0.75	0.00	off the map	Since Nov 6

Sleeper rule: season baseline of 0.3 PPG or less running at double it over the last 14 days. Once listed, a player stays until his 14-day pace drops below 0.7 PPG. Window: October 26 to November 8, 2026.

Pro Hockey Stats models the NHL in public. Every pick is graded on the Ledger, no deletions.