Q. Byfield at 3.2x

Q. Byfield went from 2 points in 8 games before the window to 4 points in 5 over the last 14 days (0.80 points per game, 3.2x his 0.25 season pace), and eight carryovers sit at exactly 1.00 points per game across the current window. Below are tonight’s five new surges, the twelve carryovers still holding their pace, and the two names that drop off the list.

First flags

Five new names, each at 0.3 points per game or less before this run and at least double it over the last 14 days.

Q. Byfield (Los Angeles) moved from 2 points in 8 games before the window to 4 points in 5, a 0.80 points-per-game pace at 3.2x his 0.25 baseline.

N. Dobson (Montreal) sits at 5 points in 6 (0.83 points per game) after 3 points in 11 before the window, 3.1x a 0.27 baseline.

R. Colton (Nashville) mirrors Dobson’s line: 5 points in 6 after 3 points in 11 before the window, also 3.1x.

M. Olivier (Columbus) is 4 points in 6 (0.67 points per game) after 2 points in 9, a 3.0x jump off a 0.22 baseline.

C. Mazur (Detroit) runs 3 points in 6 after 1 point in 6, 3.0x a 0.17 baseline and the minimum entry pace at 0.50 points per game.

Still on pace

Twelve carryovers, each holding 0.7 points per game or better on the current window no matter what their season baselines read now.

Eight carryovers held exactly 1.00 points per game: P. Tomasino (since Nov 9), D. Doughty (since Nov 7), J. Drysdale (since Nov 6), K. Dach and E. Cernak (since Nov 8), J. St. Ivany (since Nov 5), S. Vilmanis and A. Protas (since Nov 7). P. Mintyukov (0.80) and M. Barron (0.71) are both still on their first flag from Nov 9. F. Xhekaj (since Nov 8) and E. Del Mastro (since Nov 6) hold 0.75 each, both untouched in NHL scoring before their runs began.

Off the board

The two names that fell under the retention line tonight.

J. Christiansen (3 points in 6, 0.50 points per game) and N. Cates (3 points in 7, 0.43) dropped below 0.7 one day after first flagging and come off the list.

Full board

Every listed player: five new names by ratio, twelve carryovers by 14-day pace.

Player	Team	GP	P	PPG (14d)	Baseline PPG	Ratio	Status
Q. Byfield	LAK	5	4	0.80	0.25	3.0+	New
N. Dobson	MTL	6	5	0.83	0.27	3.0+	New
R. Colton	NSH	6	5	0.83	0.27	3.0+	New
M. Olivier	CBJ	6	4	0.67	0.22	3.0+	New
C. Mazur	DET	6	3	0.50	0.17	3.0+	New
P. Tomasino	OTT	4	4	1.00	0.11	3.0+	Since Nov 9
D. Doughty	LAK	4	4	1.00	0.40	2.5	Since Nov 7
J. Drysdale	PHI	7	7	1.00	0.15	3.0+	Since Nov 6
K. Dach	MTL	4	4	1.00	0.18	3.0+	Since Nov 8
E. Cernak	TBL	5	5	1.00	0.18	3.0+	Since Nov 8
J. St. Ivany	WSH	5	5	1.00	0.00	off the map	Since Nov 5
S. Vilmanis	FLA	5	5	1.00	0.18	3.0+	Since Nov 7
A. Protas	WSH	5	5	1.00	0.20	3.0+	Since Nov 7
P. Mintyukov	ANA	5	4	0.80	0.22	3.0+	Since Nov 9
F. Xhekaj	MTL	4	3	0.75	0.00	off the map	Since Nov 8
E. Del Mastro	CHI	4	3	0.75	0.00	off the map	Since Nov 6
M. Barron	WPG	7	5	0.71	0.18	3.0+	Since Nov 9

Sleeper rule: season baseline of 0.3 PPG or less running at double it over the last 14 days. Once listed, a player stays until his 14-day pace drops below 0.7 PPG. Window: October 27 to November 9.

Pro Hockey Stats models the NHL in public. Every pick is graded on the Ledger, no deletions.