Sleeper Surges: J. Chmelar, off the map

Z. Hyman posts 3 points in 3 games for Edmonton, a 1.00 PPG clip that leads every surge on the board, and J. Chmelar adds 3 points in 6 games for New York after a scoreless first seven. Below sit the new surges, seven carryovers still at 0.7 PPG or better, five who faded and the full board.

Key points

Three reads from a 95-game window, October 31 to November 13.

All five names flagged one night ago are already gone: the 14-day window turns over one day and none of them hold the 0.7 PPG retention line.

Only two teams played on Thursday, so the rolling window moves the board more than fresh points do. J. Chmelar was the sole qualifier who played, and the only qualifier with a point.

A. Lundell’s season baseline now reads 0.43 after two strong weeks, and he stays listed because retention tracks the 14-day pace alone.

Fresh names

Five first-time qualifiers, strongest rise first, each off a season baseline of 0.3 PPG or less.

J. Chmelar put up 3 points in 6 games for the Rangers, 2 of them goals, after going scoreless through his first 7 games. With nothing on the board before the window, his surge multiple is off the map.

C. Koepke has 3 points in 5 games for Winnipeg against 1 point through his first 11 games, a 3.0+ multiple.

Z. Hyman scored in 3 straight games for Edmonton, 2 goals in his 3 points, after 1 point across his first 6 games. At 1.00 PPG he carries the board’s fastest 14-day pace.

S. Rinzel has 5 points in 6 games for Chicago without a goal, after 2 points through his first 12 games, a 3.0+ multiple.

A. Copp has 6 points in 7 games for Detroit, a 3.0+ rise off 3 points through his first 13 games.

Holding pace

Seven carryovers holding 0.7 PPG or better, with the night each was first flagged.

S. Vilmanis leads at 1.25 PPG (FLA, since Nov 7), J. Drysdale holds 1.00 (PHI, Nov 6), E. Cernak 1.00 (TBL, Nov 8), K. Dach 1.00 (MTL, Nov 8), M. Barron 0.83 (WPG, Nov 9), A. Protas 0.80 (WSH, Nov 7) and A. Lundell 0.80 (FLA, Nov 11). Protas (baseline 0.42) and Lundell (0.43) are past the 0.3 line now and keep their spots on pace alone.

Off the board

Five exits, all under the 0.7 PPG retention line.

N. Perbix (0.57), A. Xhekaj (0.67), V. Björck (0.67), A. Toropchenko (0.50) and J. Struble (0.43) all drop below 0.7 PPG and leave the list.

Everyone on the board

Twelve listed players, five new and seven carried, sorted by surge multiple.

Player	Team	GP	P	PPG (14d)	Baseline PPG	Ratio	Status
J. Chmelar	NYR	6	3	0.50	0.00	off the map	New
C. Koepke	WPG	5	3	0.60	0.09	3.0+	New
Z. Hyman	EDM	3	3	1.00	0.17	3.0+	New
S. Rinzel	CHI	6	5	0.83	0.17	3.0+	New
A. Copp	DET	7	6	0.86	0.23	3.0+	New
S. Vilmanis	FLA	4	5	1.25	0.15	5.5	Since Nov 7
J. Drysdale	PHI	6	6	1.00	0.20	7.6	Since Nov 6
E. Cernak	TBL	5	5	1.00	0.17	5.5	Since Nov 8
K. Dach	MTL	4	4	1.00	0.23	5.5	Since Nov 8
M. Barron	WPG	6	5	0.83	0.21	3.9	Since Nov 9
A. Protas	WSH	5	4	0.80	0.42	5.0	Since Nov 7
A. Lundell	FLA	5	4	0.80	0.43	4.3	Since Nov 11

Sleeper rule: season baseline of 0.3 PPG or less running at double it over the last 14 days. Once listed, a player stays until his 14-day pace drops below 0.7 PPG. Window: October 31 to November 13.

Pro Hockey Stats models the NHL in public. Every pick is graded on the Ledger, no deletions.