Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 51?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals5 × 3+15
- proj assists30 × 1+30
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots159 × 0.1+15.9
- PIM44 × 0.05+2.2
- ice time (min)1692 × 0.01+16.9
- total85 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16685 = 51/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 85 points is 51 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.8/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for PIT.
- Veteran card: age 39 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 2.8% shooting on 36 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.2% (1322 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.9%, worth PD −2.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006-07 | Penguins | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:33 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| 2007-08 | Penguins | 63 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -1 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 18:10 | 3 | 0 | 68 | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 2008-09 | Penguins | 74 | 10 | 23 | 33 | -7 | 24 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 21:09 | 3 | 0 | 138 | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| 2009-10 | Penguins | 73 | 3 | 24 | 27 | 1 | 51 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 21:34 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| 2010-11 | Penguins | 82 | 8 | 42 | 50 | 15 | 101 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 24:02 | 2 | 1 | 236 | 3.4% | 100.0% |
| 2011-12 | Penguins | 51 | 10 | 32 | 42 | 21 | 34 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 24:50 | 3 | 1 | 142 | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Penguins | 35 | 5 | 33 | 38 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 25:38 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Penguins | 37 | 11 | 11 | 22 | -8 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 24:14 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Penguins | 69 | 11 | 43 | 54 | 12 | 79 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 25:29 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Penguins | 71 | 16 | 51 | 67 | 9 | 66 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 26:57 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Penguins | 41 | 5 | 29 | 34 | 2 | 32 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 25:31 | 2 | 1 | 122 | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Penguins | 79 | 9 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 56 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 25:20 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Penguins | 65 | 16 | 40 | 56 | 13 | 48 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 25:58 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Penguins | 61 | 15 | 29 | 44 | 0 | 38 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 25:44 | 2 | 0 | 177 | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Penguins | 55 | 7 | 38 | 45 | 19 | 32 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 24:39 | 2 | 1 | 132 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Penguins | 78 | 10 | 58 | 68 | 20 | 49 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 25:47 | 3 | 2 | 214 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Penguins | 64 | 12 | 29 | 41 | -13 | 30 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 24:51 | 3 | 3 | 161 | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Penguins | 82 | 10 | 41 | 51 | 13 | 62 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 24:41 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Penguins | 74 | 9 | 21 | 30 | -15 | 52 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 23:32 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Penguins | 74 | 3 | 31 | 34 | -4 | 38 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 21:41 | 2 | 2 | 104 | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 19 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20:09 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 5 | 30 | 35 | — | 46 | — | 9 | — | 19:44 | — | — | 135 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 39 that is -10%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Seth Jones (2025-25) · Tyson Barrie (2023-23) · Filip Hronek (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ SJS | |||||
| P1 08:57 | EV | Assist | Girard (Malkin, Letang) → 1-0 | Malkin · Brazeau · Koivunen Letang · Girard | Ostapchuk · Graf Trouba · Kesselring · Dickinson Askarov (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ ANA | |||||
| P3 08:05 | PP | Goal | #? (Malkin, Karlsson) → 1-4 | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell · Kindel Karlsson | Granlund · Carlsson LaCombe · Warren Brossoit (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ LAK | |||||
| P1 01:52 | EV | Assist | #? (Carlile, Letang) → 1-0 | Chinakhov · Kindel Letang · Carlile | Laughton · Turcotte · Lee Gustafsson · Clarke Kuemper (G) |
| P3 18:44 | EV | Assist | #? (Malkin, Letang) → 5-2 | Malkin · Rakell Letang · Karlsson | Perry · Kempe · Panarin · Turcotte Gustafsson Kuemper (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs NSH | |||||
| P4 03:44 | EV | Assist | Koivunen (Lapierre, Letang) → 3-2 | McGroarty · Robertson · Novak · Dewar · Lapierre · Soderblom · Koivunen · Lizotte · Kuzmenko · Rakell · Hayes · Crosby Korczak · Solovyov · Stastney · Letang · Karlsson · Carlile | Drury · Hoglander · Marchessault Wilsby · Josi Saros (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Kris over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Carlile PIT | 84 | 10 | |
| Evgeni Malkin PIT | 69 | 9 | |
| Ben Kindel PIT | 65 | 10 | |
| Sidney Crosby PIT | 62 | 10 | |
| Rickard Rakell PIT | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats