Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 38?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots99 × 0.1+9.9
- PIM104 × 0.05+5.2
- ice time (min)1074 × 0.01+10.7
- total92 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24292 = 38/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 92 points is 38 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for DAL.
- Veteran card: age 37 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 15.0% shooting on 20 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.2% (1220 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.6%, worth PD +0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | Stars | 82 | 22 | 19 | 41 | -1 | 45 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 14:42 | 3 | 0 | 182 | 12.1% | 46.2% |
| 2010-11 | Stars | 69 | 22 | 34 | 56 | -5 | 52 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 18:01 | 3 | 0 | 177 | 12.4% | 43.1% |
| 2011-12 | Stars | 71 | 26 | 37 | 63 | 15 | 55 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 18:04 | 7 | 0 | 203 | 12.8% | 46.2% |
| 2012-13 | Stars | 41 | 12 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 40 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 19:55 | 3 | 0 | 110 | 10.9% | 46.1% |
| 2013-14 | Stars | 81 | 34 | 45 | 79 | 21 | 64 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 19:09 | 3 | 1 | 279 | 12.2% | 52.8% |
| 2014-15 | Stars | 82 | 35 | 52 | 87 | 1 | 64 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 19:57 | 6 | 0 | 253 | 13.8% | 51.7% |
| 2015-16 | Stars | 82 | 41 | 48 | 89 | 7 | 64 | 17 | 30 | 2 | 20:01 | 5 | 1 | 247 | 16.6% | 47.3% |
| 2016-17 | Stars | 77 | 26 | 43 | 69 | -9 | 66 | 12 | 26 | 1 | 19:22 | 4 | 2 | 201 | 12.9% | 51.5% |
| 2017-18 | Stars | 82 | 36 | 43 | 79 | 20 | 54 | 9 | 22 | 1 | 19:49 | 7 | 1 | 241 | 14.9% | 52.5% |
| 2018-19 | Stars | 78 | 27 | 26 | 53 | 14 | 56 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 18:14 | 2 | 0 | 189 | 14.3% | 49.0% |
| 2019-20 | Stars | 69 | 19 | 20 | 39 | -4 | 53 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 16:26 | 4 | 2 | 163 | 11.7% | 55.8% |
| 2020-21 | Stars | 52 | 11 | 24 | 35 | 13 | 33 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 17:47 | 2 | 2 | 124 | 8.9% | 56.1% |
| 2021-22 | Stars | 82 | 18 | 28 | 46 | -13 | 88 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 16:45 | 2 | 2 | 182 | 9.9% | 55.2% |
| 2022-23 | Stars | 82 | 33 | 45 | 78 | 23 | 34 | 13 | 30 | 2 | 15:47 | 4 | 0 | 190 | 17.4% | 60.1% |
| 2023-24 | Stars | 82 | 21 | 39 | 60 | 8 | 41 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 15:07 | 3 | 0 | 164 | 12.8% | 61.2% |
| 2024-25 | Stars | 80 | 16 | 33 | 49 | 3 | 70 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 15:18 | 4 | 1 | 136 | 11.8% | 56.0% |
| 2025-26 | Stars | 60 | 15 | 21 | 36 | 8 | 53 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 13:17 | 3 | 0 | 72 | 20.8% | 48.5% |
| 2026-27 | Stars | 18 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 14.3% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Stars | 84 | 15 | 21 | 36 | — | 77 | — | 4 | — | 13:46 | — | — | 118 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 37 that is -8%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24) · Taylor Hall (2025-25) · Jordan Eberle (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 15:17 | EV | Goal | #? (Hintz) → 2-1 | Seguin · Hintz Lindell · Bichsel | Smith · Celebrini · Misa Nurse · Kesselring Nedeljkovic (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ WSH | |||||
| P2 14:50 | EV | Assist | #? (Johnston, #?) → 5-1 | Kiviranta · Johnston Myers · Harley | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou Chychrun · Ivany Lindgren (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P3 19:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Benn, Heiskanen) → 3-1 | Benn · Hintz Lindell · Heiskanen | Coyle · Monahan · Fantilli Severson · Werenski Greaves (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs MTL | |||||
| P2 08:52 | EV | Goal | Benn (Rantanen, Johnston) → 2-4 | Benn · Rantanen · Johnston Myers · Bichsel | Caufield · Newhook · Slafkovský Dobson · Hutson Dobes (G) |
| Oct 25 · vs NYI | |||||
| P1 11:31 | EV | Assist | #? (Benn, Hintz) → 1-0 | Benn · Hintz Lundkvist · Bichsel · Myers | Horvat · Palmieri · Holmstrom Stanley · Schaefer Sorokin (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jamie over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harley DAL | 53 | 10 | |
| Esa Lindell DAL | 50 | 8 | |
| Wyatt Johnston DAL | 50 | 8 | |
| Mikko Rantanen DAL | 49 | 9 | |
| Nils Lundkvist DAL | 45 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats