Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points16 × 0.5+8
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots180 × 0.1+18
- PIM16 × 0.05+0.8
- ice time (min)1115 × 0.01+11.2
- total115 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242115 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 115 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.7 SOG/game lately vs 1.6 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for SJS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.1% shooting on 45 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.8% (1935 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.5%, worth PD −0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Kings | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11:59 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Kings | 62 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 12:56 | 5 | 0 | 124 | 9.7% | 22.2% |
| 2014-15 | Kings | 76 | 23 | 26 | 49 | 25 | 37 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14:35 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 11.5% | 44.4% |
| 2015-16 | Kings | 82 | 31 | 27 | 58 | 35 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 17:19 | 4 | 0 | 213 | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Kings | 63 | 16 | 18 | 34 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 16:35 | 2 | 1 | 165 | 9.7% | 40.0% |
| 2017-18 | Kings | 82 | 24 | 23 | 47 | 9 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 16:07 | 6 | 1 | 251 | 9.6% | 36.0% |
| 2018-19 | Kings | 82 | 13 | 21 | 34 | -16 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 17:13 | 3 | 2 | 226 | 5.8% | 47.1% |
| 2019-20 | Kings | 58 | 18 | 16 | 34 | -4 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 16:37 | 3 | 0 | 165 | 10.9% | 30.8% |
| 2019-20 | Canucks | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18:15 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 15.8% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Canadiens | 52 | 28 | 16 | 44 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 17:31 | 5 | 0 | 158 | 17.7% | 38.9% |
| 2021-22 | Canadiens | 37 | 9 | 17 | 26 | -8 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 17:31 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 9.0% | 38.5% |
| 2021-22 | Flames | 37 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 15:05 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 11.6% | 61.9% |
| 2022-23 | Flames | 82 | 34 | 39 | 73 | 16 | 28 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 16:37 | 4 | 2 | 268 | 12.7% | 58.3% |
| 2023-24 | Devils | 61 | 26 | 18 | 44 | -15 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 17:32 | 2 | 1 | 179 | 14.5% | 39.1% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 18 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15:01 | 2 | 0 | 50 | 14.0% | 28.6% |
| 2024-25 | Sharks | 78 | 30 | 24 | 54 | -21 | 14 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 16:56 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 12.9% | 54.2% |
| 2025-26 | Sharks | 79 | 19 | 30 | 49 | -12 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 14:58 | 2 | 1 | 172 | 11.0% | 27.3% |
| 2026-27 | Sharks | 21 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13:16 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 11.1% | 75.0% |
| 84-G proj | Sharks | 84 | 18 | 23 | 41 | — | 26 | — | 15 | — | 13:58 | — | — | 159 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 34 that is -5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Valeri Nichushkin (2025-25) · Rickard Rakell (2025-25) · Anthony Cirelli (2025-25) · Sam Bennett (2025-25) · Tyler Toffoli (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 · vs NYI | |||||
| P1 16:41 | EV | Assist | Stenberg (Toffoli, Dellandrea) → 1-1 | Toffoli · Dellandrea · Stenberg Nurse · Pohlkamp | Schenn · Heineman · Eklund DeAngelo · Stanley Sorokin (G) |
| P2 12:12 | EV | Goal | Toffoli (Orlov, Pohlkamp) → 2-2 | Toffoli · Marchment · Misa Orlov · Pohlkamp | Cizikas · Pageau · MacLean Pelech · Stanley Sorokin (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ BOS | |||||
| P1 05:54 | PP | Assist | Misa (Toffoli, Trouba) → 1-1 | Sherwood · Toffoli · Misa · Gaudette Trouba | Jeannot · Minten Lindholm · McAvoy Swayman (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Tyler over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivar Stenberg SJS | 65 | 10 | |
| Mason Marchment SJS | 51 | 10 | |
| Macklin Celebrini SJS | 42 | 10 | |
| Dmitry Orlov SJS | 41 | 10 | |
| Jacob Trouba SJS | 39 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats