Juuse Saros

Juuse Saros

G · Left catchesAge 315'11" · 180 lbForssa, Finland
cap hit$7.74Mcontract ledger →

Wins by season

Career NHL wins, ending with the projection at a 60-start workload (violet).

19: 17 pts171920: 18 pts1821: 23 pts232122: 38 pts3823: 33 pts332324: 37 pts3725: 20 pts202526: 28 pts2829PROJ27: 6 pts (projected 29)27

Pool value

Projected full-season fantasy worth.

73/100
why 73?

Every fantasy goalie category, scored on the season model's projections at a 60-start workload:

  • proj wins29 × 4.5+130.5
  • proj shutouts2.6 × 3+7.8
  • SV% 0.899 vs .900-0.001 × 250-0.3
  • GAA 3.13 vs 2.70-0.43 × 50-21.5
  • total117 pool points  ·  an elite goalie season scores 160117 = 73/100

Weights: a win is worth 4.5 (the heaviest goalie category in every format), a shutout 3, SV% pays 250 per full point above .900 and GAA pays 50 per hundredth below 2.70. 100 = a Vezina-tier season (~26 W, 6 SO, .918, 2.45). Projections shrink SV% toward career and league averages because save percentage repeats poorly year to year; wins lean on team quality for the same reason.

Season stats — goaltending

NHL regular-season goaltending numbers from the league's goalie feed — wins, GAA, save% and shutouts, season by season. Skater columns (G/A/P) would be all zeros for a goalie, so they're gone. The 60-start proj line is a model, not a pace: save% is projected with empirical-Bayes shrinkage toward career and league (save% is weakly repeatable — Schuckers 2016; a James–Stein study on NHL save% found shrinkage beats the raw estimate 2.2× in error), GAA is rebuilt from its SA/60 × (1−SV%) identity, shutouts are the Poisson zero probability at the projected goals-against rate (Buttrey & Washburn, JQAS 2011), and wins are regressed toward the league per-start rate because wins are mostly a team stat (Berri & Brook 2010). Backtested on 330 goalie seasons from our own data: 26% lower save% error and 16% lower GAA error than naive last-year pace. Hockey's honest truth: save% barely repeats, so this model shrinks hard on purpose.

SeasonTeamGPGSWLOTGAASV%SO
17-18NSH302311572.3592.6%3
18-19NSH3227171022.5891.6%3
19-20NSH4438181542.7591.2%4
20-21NSH4241231512.3792.6%3
21-22NSH6767382532.6491.8%4
22-23NSH6463332372.6991.9%2
23-24NSH7070372852.7990.6%3
24-25NSH5858203162.9889.6%4
25-26NSH5959282283.1689.4%0
26-27NSH13136342.4291.8%1
60-start projNSH60602919123.1389.9%2.6

Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats