Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 36?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points8 × 0.5+4
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots122 × 0.1+12.2
- PIM15 × 0.05+0.8
- ice time (min)1719 × 0.01+17.2
- total88 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24288 = 36/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 88 points is 36 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (11 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 7 of 17 for SJS — missed 10 games (2026-11-02, 2026-11-04, 2026-11-06, 2026-11-07, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −3.3
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.8% (679 shots before this season) — that's 2.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.1 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.1%, worth PD −3.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Blue Jackets | 68 | 4 | 16 | 20 | -19 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 15:37 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 4.7% | 42.7% |
| 2015-16 | Blue Jackets | 69 | 8 | 32 | 40 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 15:52 | 1 | 0 | 97 | 8.3% | 43.4% |
| 2016-17 | Blue Jackets | 80 | 13 | 46 | 59 | 9 | 21 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 18:23 | 5 | 0 | 109 | 11.9% | 47.4% |
| 2017-18 | Blue Jackets | 66 | 8 | 27 | 35 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18:08 | 2 | 1 | 74 | 10.8% | 45.2% |
| 2018-19 | Blue Jackets | 75 | 2 | 23 | 25 | -1 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 15:05 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 3.1% | 48.4% |
| 2019-20 | Blue Jackets | 57 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16:41 | 1 | 0 | 72 | 6.9% | 46.0% |
| 2020-21 | Panthers | 56 | 17 | 12 | 29 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18:10 | 2 | 1 | 82 | 20.7% | 49.2% |
| 2021-22 | Kraken | 80 | 11 | 26 | 37 | -26 | 28 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17:51 | 2 | 0 | 95 | 11.6% | 46.6% |
| 2022-23 | Kraken | 82 | 13 | 25 | 38 | -7 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 18:42 | 3 | 0 | 101 | 12.9% | 45.6% |
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 60 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 18:49 | 4 | 0 | 80 | 11.3% | 46.7% |
| 2023-24 | Rangers | 19 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:22 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10.0% | 45.1% |
| 2024-25 | Sharks | 77 | 10 | 25 | 35 | -21 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 18:51 | 2 | 2 | 82 | 12.2% | 47.5% |
| 2025-26 | Sharks | 80 | 18 | 37 | 55 | -25 | 18 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 20:27 | 3 | 1 | 93 | 19.4% | 46.8% |
| 2026-27 | Sharks | 11 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:28 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0% | 44.9% |
| 84-G proj | Sharks | 84 | 10 | 24 | 34 | — | 30 | — | 13 | — | 17:42 | — | — | 138 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Mathieu Joseph (2025-25) · Radek Faksa (2025-25) · Phillip Danault (2025-25) · Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2025-25) · Freddy Gaudreau (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 5 of 7 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 · @ DET | |||||
| P3 02:48 | PP | Assist | Stenberg (Wennberg, Celebrini) → 3-1 | Wennberg · Smith · Celebrini · Stenberg Orlov | Copp · Finnie Johansson · Wallinder Gibson (G) |
| Oct 15 · @ NSH | |||||
| P1 05:30 | EV | Assist | Marchment (Toffoli, Wennberg) → 1-0 | Toffoli · Wennberg · Marchment Allan · Cagnoni | Marchessault · Colton · Pinchuk Josi · Struble Saros (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Alexander over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Marchment SJS | 84 | 10 | |
| Ivar Stenberg SJS | 80 | 10 | |
| Jacob Trouba SJS | 66 | 10 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood SJS | 63 | 10 | |
| Darnell Nurse SJS | 59 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats