Conor Garland
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 23?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals6 × 3+18
- proj assists11 × 1+11
- PP points6 × 0.5+3
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots101 × 0.1+10.1
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)1138 × 0.01+11.4
- total55 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24255 = 23/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 55 points is 23 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 2 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 12 of 14 for CBJ — missed 2 games (2026-11-10, 2026-11-12).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −2.5
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.7% (1289 shots before this season) — that's 1.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.9 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.2%, worth PD −2.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Coyotes | 47 | 13 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12:47 | 2 | 0 | 118 | 11.0% | 55.6% |
| 2019-20 | Coyotes | 68 | 22 | 17 | 39 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 14:09 | 5 | 0 | 158 | 13.9% | 36.4% |
| 2020-21 | Coyotes | 49 | 12 | 27 | 39 | -3 | 26 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 17:55 | 1 | 0 | 135 | 8.9% | 33.3% |
| 2021-22 | Canucks | 77 | 19 | 33 | 52 | 18 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:24 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 9.4% | 50.0% |
| 2022-23 | Canucks | 81 | 17 | 29 | 46 | -5 | 31 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 15:07 | 2 | 1 | 167 | 10.2% | 21.4% |
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 82 | 20 | 27 | 47 | 19 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 14:32 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 81 | 19 | 31 | 50 | -13 | 52 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 18:39 | 4 | 2 | 171 | 11.1% | 27.8% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 50 | 7 | 19 | 26 | -15 | 30 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 18:57 | 1 | 0 | 103 | 6.8% | 37.9% |
| 2025-26 | Blue Jackets | 21 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 14.7% | 75.0% |
| 2026-27 | Blue Jackets | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:33 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blue Jackets | 84 | 6 | 11 | 17 | — | 38 | — | 9 | — | 14:16 | — | — | 121 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jordan Greenway (2025-25) · Tyler Pitlick (2023-23) · Colton Sissons (2025-25) · Ty Dellandrea (2025-25) · Jason Dickinson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 07:37 | PP | Assist | #? (Garland, Nichushkin) → 2-0 | Monahan · Nichushkin · Garland Mateychuk | Nelson · Lehkonen Burns · Kulak Wedgewood (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Conor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan CBJ | 78 | 10 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin CBJ | 74 | 10 | |
| Denton Mateychuk CBJ | 69 | 10 | |
| Jake Christiansen CBJ | 41 | 10 | |
| Zach Werenski CBJ | 38 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats