Jakob Chychrun
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 83?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists44 × 1+44
- PP points26 × 0.5+13
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots263 × 0.1+26.3
- PIM84 × 0.05+4.2
- ice time (min)2048 × 0.01+20.5
- total138 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166138 = 83/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 138 points is 83 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for WSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −4.6
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 4.0% shooting on 50 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.9% (1433 shots before this season) — that's 1.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.9 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 6.1%, worth PD −4.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Coyotes | 68 | 7 | 13 | 20 | -14 | 47 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:40 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Coyotes | 50 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20:15 | 1 | 0 | 102 | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Coyotes | 53 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -12 | 28 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 20:15 | 0 | 0 | 117 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Coyotes | 63 | 12 | 14 | 26 | 4 | 38 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 22:26 | 2 | 0 | 149 | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Coyotes | 56 | 18 | 23 | 41 | -6 | 42 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 23:23 | 3 | 1 | 176 | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Coyotes | 47 | 7 | 14 | 21 | -20 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23:00 | 2 | 1 | 141 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Coyotes | 36 | 7 | 21 | 28 | 8 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 23:16 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 12 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 82 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -30 | 60 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 22:23 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Capitals | 74 | 20 | 27 | 47 | 17 | 52 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 21:04 | 6 | 1 | 179 | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 80 | 26 | 34 | 60 | 20 | 62 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 23:20 | 8 | 2 | 221 | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 17 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 24:22 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 10 | 44 | 54 | — | 70 | — | 21 | — | 22:06 | — | — | 188 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Charlie McAvoy (2025-25) · Roman Josi (2025-25) · Dougie Hamilton (2025-25) · Shea Theodore (2025-25) · Mikhail Sergachev (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · @ OTT | |||||
| P1 00:35 | EV | Assist | #? (Chychrun, Protas) → 1-0 | Kyrou · Dubois · Protas Chychrun | Cousins · Batherson · Pinto Sanderson · Zub Ersson (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs DAL | |||||
| P2 19:30 | PP | Goal | #? (Strome, Kyrou) → 3-5 | Ovechkin · Wilson · Strome · Kyrou | Faksa · Kiviranta Lindell · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| P3 18:58 | EV | Assist | #? (Kyrou, Chychrun) → 5-6 | Jenner · Kyrou · Sourdif · Protas Chychrun | Hintz · Robertson · Hyry Lundkvist · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ NSH | |||||
| P3 10:09 | EV | Assist | Tuch (Kyrou, Chychrun) → 4-3 | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou Roy · Chychrun | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Bourque Josi · Wilsby Saros (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs PHI | |||||
| P2 07:14 | PP | Assist | #? (Strome, Chychrun) → 2-1 | Ovechkin · Strome · Wilson Chychrun | Couturier · Acciari Sanheim · York Woll (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jakob over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome WSH | 98 | 10 | |
| Matt Roy WSH | 82 | 7 | |
| Alex Tuch WSH | 79 | 10 | |
| Jordan Kyrou WSH | 73 | 10 | |
| Tom Wilson WSH | 72 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats