Mathieu Olivier
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 43?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals16 × 3+48
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots163 × 0.1+16.3
- PIM142 × 0.05+7.1
- ice time (min)1302 × 0.01+13
- total103 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242103 = 43/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 103 points is 43 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.2 SOG/game lately vs 1.3 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for CBJ.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.7% shooting on 31 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.7% (370 shots before this season) — that's 1.0 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.7%, worth PD −1.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Predators | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:33 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Predators | 30 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 70 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:55 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 12.0% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Predators | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:06 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blue Jackets | 66 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -20 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 1 | 0 | 75 | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| 2023-24 | Blue Jackets | 54 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:17 | 1 | 0 | 55 | 9.1% | 25.0% |
| 2024-25 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 18 | 14 | 32 | -4 | 139 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:28 | 5 | 0 | 111 | 16.2% | 38.9% |
| 2025-26 | Blue Jackets | 61 | 15 | 11 | 26 | 13 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 3 | 0 | 93 | 16.1% | 18.2% |
| 2026-27 | Blue Jackets | 17 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 9.4% | 75.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blue Jackets | 84 | 16 | 19 | 35 | — | 97 | — | 0 | — | 15:22 | — | — | 151 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Cody Glass (2025-25) · Mathieu Olivier (2025-25) · Mark Jankowski (2025-25) · Kirby Dach (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 00:28 | EV | Goal | #? (Coyle) → 1-0 | Coyle · Nichushkin Severson · Werenski | Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Toews · Makar Wedgewood (G) |
| P2 04:19 | EV | Assist | #? (Olivier, Coyle) → 3-1 | Coyle · Olivier · Sillinger Fabbro | Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Toews · Makar Wedgewood (G) |
| P2 07:20 | EV | Assist | #? (Werenski, Olivier) → 4-1 | Coyle · Olivier Severson · Werenski | Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Toews · Makar Wedgewood (G) · Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ PHI | |||||
| P1 13:44 | EV | Assist | Mateychuk (Olivier, Knies) → 3-0 | Coyle · Olivier · Knies Christiansen · Mateychuk | Cates · Michkov · Martone York · Drysdale Vladar (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mathieu over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Coyle CBJ | 124 | 10 | |
| Cole Sillinger CBJ | 101 | 10 | |
| Zach Werenski CBJ | 80 | 10 | |
| Damon Severson CBJ | 76 | 10 | |
| Denton Mateychuk CBJ | 51 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats