Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 43?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists15 × 1+15
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals10 × 0.5+5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots109 × 0.1+10.9
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)992 × 0.01+9.9
- total103 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242103 = 43/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 103 points is 43 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.5 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for NJD.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.0
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 22.7% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.4% (418 shots before this season) — that's 2.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.7 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.1%, worth PD +3.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Rodrigues 11.1%, Glass 8.0%, Pesce 5.3%, Hughes 14.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Devils | 35 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:57 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 9.8% | 31.3% |
| 2020-21 | Devils | 28 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 11.8% | 38.4% |
| 2021-22 | Devils | 56 | 10 | 13 | 23 | -9 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:08 | 1 | 0 | 74 | 13.5% | 37.3% |
| 2022-23 | Devils | 70 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 2 | 0 | 67 | 14.9% | 33.2% |
| 2023-24 | Bruins | 47 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | 1 | 1 | 51 | 11.8% | 35.7% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 78 | 12 | 11 | 23 | -4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:15 | 3 | 0 | 87 | 13.8% | 42.3% |
| 2025-26 | Panthers | 73 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -11 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:50 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 6.3% | 30.3% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 18 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:45 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 21.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 20 | 15 | 36 | — | 19 | — | 2 | — | 13:12 | — | — | 122 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Mark Jankowski (2025-25) · Kirby Dach (2025-25) · Cody Glass (2025-25) · Alex Chiasson (2021-21).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · vs STL | |||||
| P2 18:00 | EV | Goal | Boqvist (Hughes, Mantha) → 3-1 | Mantha · Rodrigues · Boqvist Pesce · Hughes | Thomas · Holloway · Snuggerud Parayko · Barron Binnington (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ DAL | |||||
| P2 11:45 | EV | Goal | Boqvist (Hughes, Gritsyuk) → 3-0 | Boqvist · Gritsyuk · Hughes Hamilton · Siegenthaler | Kiviranta · Johnston · Rantanen Heiskanen · Harley DeSmith (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs LAK | |||||
| P2 18:43 | EV | Assist | Mantha (Boqvist, Rodrigues) → 1-1 | Rodrigues · Mantha · Boqvist Hamilton · Siegenthaler | Kempe · Panarin · Helenius Edmundson · Clarke Forsberg (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jesper over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues NJD | 54 | 10 | |
| Cody Glass NJD | 48 | 10 | |
| Brett Pesce NJD | 43 | 9 | |
| Luke Hughes NJD | 42 | 10 | |
| Declan Chisholm NJD | 40 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats