Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 88?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals37 × 3+111
- proj assists49 × 1+49
- PP points21 × 0.5+10.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots238 × 0.1+23.8
- PIM14 × 0.05+0.7
- ice time (min)1769 × 0.01+17.7
- total213 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242213 = 88/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 213 points is 88 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (12 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 19:45/game over the last 6, down 15% from 23:18 earlier in the season.
- Off the net: 2.3 SOG/game lately vs 3.7 before — chances have dried up.
- Availability: played 9 of 15 for MTL — missed 6 games (2026-10-27, 2026-10-29, 2026-10-31, 2026-11-03, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +5.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 20.6% shooting on 34 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.6% (1136 shots before this season) — that's 2.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.7%, worth PD +5.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Canadiens | 71 | 13 | 28 | 41 | -15 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 15:59 | 1 | 0 | 138 | 9.4% | 46.3% |
| 2020-21 | Canadiens | 56 | 15 | 26 | 41 | -5 | 26 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 18:11 | 1 | 0 | 110 | 13.6% | 44.0% |
| 2021-22 | Canadiens | 82 | 21 | 40 | 61 | -29 | 30 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 20:31 | 4 | 0 | 186 | 11.3% | 49.6% |
| 2022-23 | Canadiens | 82 | 26 | 40 | 66 | -13 | 33 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 21:06 | 2 | 0 | 162 | 16.0% | 47.3% |
| 2023-24 | Canadiens | 82 | 33 | 44 | 77 | -14 | 36 | 12 | 31 | 0 | 21:16 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 17.8% | 52.6% |
| 2024-25 | Canadiens | 82 | 30 | 59 | 89 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 20:04 | 9 | 5 | 172 | 17.4% | 51.6% |
| 2025-26 | Canadiens | 82 | 29 | 72 | 101 | 37 | 28 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 20:49 | 2 | 1 | 183 | 15.8% | 50.4% |
| 2026-27 | Canadiens | 13 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 20:58 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 20.6% | 56.1% |
| 84-G proj | Canadiens | 84 | 37 | 49 | 86 | — | 29 | — | 37 | — | 18:07 | — | — | 185 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · Mark Stone (2025-25) · Jack Hughes (2025-25) · William Nylander (2025-25) · Sidney Crosby (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 6 of 9 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs MIN | |||||
| P3 18:22 | EV | Goal | #? (Caufield, Hutson) → 1-1 | Texier · Caufield · Bolduc · Slafkovský Hutson | Coleman · McCarron · Ek Bogosian · Brodin Wallstedt (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 01:09 | PP | Assist | #? (Suzuki, Hutson) → 3-3 | Suzuki · Bolduc · Slafkovský Hutson | Trocheck · Crouse DeSimone · Simashev Cossa (G) |
| P1 15:25 | EV | Goal | #? (Slafkovský, Dobson) → 1-2 | Caufield · Slafkovský Dobson · Hutson | Schmaltz · McBain · Guenther Weegar · Sergachev Cossa (G) |
| P4 00:30 | EV | Assist | Caufield (Hutson, Suzuki) → 5-4 | Suzuki · Caufield Hutson | Keller · Guenther Sergachev Cossa (G) |
| Oct 20 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 16:38 | EV | Goal | Suzuki (Slafkovský, Hutson) → 1-1 | Suzuki · Caufield · Slafkovský Dobson · Hutson | Smith · Celebrini · Chernyshov Orlov · Allan Nedeljkovic (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nick over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield MTL | 177 | 10 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský MTL | 173 | 10 | |
| Lane Hutson MTL | 132 | 10 | |
| Noah Dobson MTL | 71 | 10 | |
| Alexandre Carrier MTL | 61 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats