Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 38?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists15 × 1+15
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots103 × 0.1+10.3
- PIM37 × 0.05+1.9
- ice time (min)1189 × 0.01+11.9
- total93 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24293 = 38/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 93 points is 38 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.2/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for BUF.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 18.2% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 17.2% (572 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 17.5%, worth PD +0.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Senators | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% | 61.2% |
| 2020-21 | Senators | 56 | 17 | 18 | 35 | -12 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 16:28 | 2 | 1 | 96 | 17.7% | 52.3% |
| 2021-22 | Senators | 66 | 35 | 20 | 55 | -7 | 16 | 16 | 23 | 0 | 18:35 | 8 | 1 | 172 | 20.3% | 51.1% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13.3% | 57.9% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 50 | 16 | 14 | 30 | -6 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 17:38 | 3 | 0 | 115 | 13.9% | 52.1% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 53 | 20 | 13 | 33 | -5 | 34 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 18:20 | 5 | 1 | 94 | 21.3% | 53.8% |
| 2024-25 | Sabres | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 50.0% | 54.0% |
| 2025-26 | Sabres | 44 | 13 | 21 | 34 | 11 | 28 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 15:50 | 3 | 0 | 69 | 18.8% | 49.5% |
| 2026-27 | Sabres | 19 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:07 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 16.7% | 49.2% |
| 84-G proj | Sabres | 84 | 17 | 15 | 32 | — | 40 | — | 7 | — | 14:34 | — | — | 121 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Shane Wright (2025-25) · Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Shane Pinto (2025-25) · Zachary Bolduc (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ CHI | |||||
| P1 09:00 | EV | Assist | #? (Norris, Quinn) → 1-0 | Zucker · Norris · Quinn Crevier | Kane · Mangiapane · Frondell Kaiser · Mastro Knight (G) |
| Nov 11 · vs TBL | |||||
| P2 15:54 | PP | Assist | #? (McLeod, Norris) → 1-4 | Zucker · Norris · McLeod Power | Cirelli · Hagel Carlson · Hedman Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P1 18:10 | EV | Goal | #? (Power) → 2-1 | Quinn Power · Zellweger | Knies · Fantilli Provorov · Mateychuk Greaves (G) |
| P2 09:46 | EV | Goal | #? (Benson, Thompson) → 4-1 | Thompson · Benson Timmins · Samuelsson | Garland · Knies · Fantilli Severson · Werenski Greaves (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Josh over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker BUF | 64 | 8 | |
| Owen Power BUF | 57 | 10 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson BUF | 48 | 10 | |
| Olen Zellweger BUF | 40 | 10 | |
| Ryan McLeod BUF | 40 | 8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats