Eetu Luostarinen
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 36?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals13 × 3+39
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots93 × 0.1+9.3
- PIM88 × 0.05+4.4
- ice time (min)1339 × 0.01+13.4
- total86 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24286 = 36/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 86 points is 36 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.7 SOG/game lately vs 1.2 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for FLA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.5% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.3% (572 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.8%, worth PD −0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Hurricanes | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% | 52.4% |
| 2020-21 | Panthers | 44 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -11 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 8.8% | 48.0% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 78 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13:26 | 4 | 1 | 84 | 10.7% | 40.0% |
| 2022-23 | Panthers | 82 | 17 | 26 | 43 | 19 | 28 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 15:59 | 1 | 0 | 132 | 12.9% | 41.9% |
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 82 | 12 | 15 | 27 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15:56 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 10.1% | 53.6% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 80 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15:17 | 3 | 0 | 87 | 10.3% | 45.2% |
| 2025-26 | Panthers | 73 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:34 | 0 | 0 | 107 | 10.3% | 44.6% |
| 2026-27 | Panthers | 20 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 9.1% | 38.1% |
| 84-G proj | Panthers | 84 | 13 | 18 | 31 | — | 70 | — | 2 | — | 15:39 | — | — | 117 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Colin Blackwell (2025-25) · Nico Sturm (2025-25) · Mathieu Joseph (2025-25) · William Carrier (2025-25) · Jason Dickinson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P3 17:44 | EV | Assist | #? (Lundell, Luostarinen) → 4-1 | Luostarinen · Lundell Jones · Mikkola | Coyle · Olivier · Sillinger · Fantilli Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs WPG | |||||
| P3 13:33 | EV | Assist | #? (Eller, Luostarinen) → 4-2 | Eller · Luostarinen Ekblad · Forsling | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi Samberg · Pionk Daws (G) |
| P3 18:21 | EV | Assist | #? (Luostarinen) → 5-2 | Eller · Luostarinen Jones · Mikkola | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Perfetti Pionk Daws (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Eetu over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Lundell FLA | 121 | 9 | |
| Aaron Ekblad FLA | 72 | 10 | |
| Gustav Forsling FLA | 69 | 10 | |
| Lars Eller FLA | 62 | 10 | |
| Seth Jones FLA | 58 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats