Nick Perbix
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 37?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots75 × 0.1+7.5
- PIM37 × 0.05+1.9
- ice time (min)1552 × 0.01+15.5
- total62 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16662 = 37/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 62 points is 37 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 14 of 15 for NSH — missed 1 game (2026-10-22).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +1.1
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 12.5% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.6% (313 shots before this season) — that's 1.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.9 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.0%, worth PD +1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Skjei 0.0%, Drury 11.1%, Edstrom 19.4%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 69 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 2 | 0 | 111 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 77 | 2 | 22 | 24 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 1 | 1 | 57 | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 74 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 1 | 0 | 66 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 79 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -14 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 18 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Predators | 84 | 8 | 13 | 21 | — | 42 | — | 0 | — | 18:43 | — | — | 87 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Justin Barron (2025-25) · Zach Bogosian (2025-25) · Louis Crevier (2025-25) · Anton Stralman (2021-21) · Brendan Smith (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs STL | |||||
| P3 18:31 | EV | Goal | #? (Stamkos, Forsberg) → 3-1 | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Forsberg Wilsby | Buchnevich · Thomas · Holloway Fowler · Barron Hofer (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs CAR | |||||
| P1 12:32 | EV | Goal | #? (Forsberg) → 1-0 | Forsberg · Hoglander · Wright Skjei | Jankowski · Martinook · Jarvis Walker · Miller Kochetkov (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs TBL | |||||
| P1 11:14 | EV | Assist | #? (Kerfoot, Perbix) → 1-0 | Marchessault · Kerfoot Skjei · Perbix | Cirelli · Hagel · Holmberg Hedman · Crozier Vasilevskiy (G) |
| P2 00:45 | EV | Assist | #? (Skjei, Perbix) → 2-2 | Colton · Drury Skjei · Perbix | Cirelli · Hagel · Holmberg McDonagh · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nick over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Skjei NSH | 153 | 10 | |
| Jack Drury NSH | 79 | 10 | |
| Adam Edstrom NSH | 59 | 10 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot NSH | 54 | 10 | |
| Ross Colton NSH | 47 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats