Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 89?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists38 × 1+38
- PP points28 × 0.5+14
- game-winning goals6 × 0.5+3
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots246 × 0.1+24.6
- PIM56 × 0.05+2.8
- ice time (min)2057 × 0.01+20.6
- total148 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166148 = 89/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 148 points is 89 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 12 of 15 for BUF — missed 3 games (2026-10-13, 2026-10-15, 2026-10-17).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.8% shooting on 44 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.3% (1385 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.1%, worth PD −0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Sabres | 82 | 9 | 35 | 44 | -13 | 34 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 21:09 | 4 | 0 | 177 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Sabres | 59 | 4 | 36 | 40 | -7 | 38 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 19:18 | 1 | 0 | 90 | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Sabres | 56 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -36 | 26 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 21:36 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Sabres | 80 | 13 | 40 | 53 | -22 | 68 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 24:01 | 3 | 1 | 170 | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Sabres | 78 | 15 | 58 | 73 | 12 | 92 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 25:48 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Sabres | 81 | 20 | 39 | 59 | -3 | 66 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 25:25 | 2 | 1 | 235 | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Sabres | 73 | 17 | 51 | 68 | 11 | 54 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 24:14 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Sabres | 77 | 19 | 55 | 74 | 18 | 76 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 24:11 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Sabres | 16 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 24:36 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Sabres | 84 | 15 | 38 | 53 | — | 53 | — | 24 | — | 22:05 | — | — | 178 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Roman Josi (2025-25) · Charlie McAvoy (2025-25) · Shea Theodore (2025-25) · Victor Hedman (2025-25) · John Carlson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ CHI | |||||
| P1 15:46 | PP | Assist | #? (Quinn, Dahlin) → 2-1 | Quinn · Ostlund · Benson Dahlin | Greenway · Greene Cole · Vlasic Knight (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P2 04:30 | EV | Goal | #? (Krebs, Power) → 3-1 | Thompson · Krebs · Benson Power | Olivier · Sillinger · Williams Fabbro · Christiansen Greaves (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ LAK | |||||
| P3 13:40 | PP | Assist | #? (Quinn, Dahlin) → 3-2 | Quinn · Ostlund · Benson Dahlin | Haula · Armia Doughty · Edmundson Forsberg (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ ANA | |||||
| P2 18:51 | EV | Assist | Thompson (Dahlin, Krebs) → 5-3 | Thompson · Krebs · Benson Samuelsson · Dahlin | Caulfield · Gauthier · Carlsson Hinds · Luneau Husso (G) |
| P3 01:57 | PP | Assist | Quinn (Thompson, Dahlin) → 6-3 | Thompson · Quinn · Ostlund · Benson Dahlin | Granlund · Carlsson LaCombe · Mitchell Husso (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Rasmus over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Samuelsson BUF | 125 | 10 | |
| Tage Thompson BUF | 110 | 10 | |
| Zach Benson BUF | 105 | 10 | |
| Jack Quinn BUF | 99 | 10 | |
| Noah Ostlund BUF | 96 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats