Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 44?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots139 × 0.1+13.9
- PIM42 × 0.05+2.1
- ice time (min)1207 × 0.01+12.1
- total106 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242106 = 44/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 106 points is 44 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.8 SOG/game lately vs 2.1 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.6/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VAN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.1% shooting on 33 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.8% (148 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.6%, worth PD −0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 23 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:56 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 10.7% | 20.0% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 79 | 15 | 20 | 35 | -28 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12:31 | 1 | 0 | 116 | 12.9% | 29.4% |
| 2026-27 | Canucks | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:22 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 12.1% | 44.4% |
| 84-G proj | Canucks | 84 | 17 | 25 | 43 | — | 42 | — | 4 | — | 14:40 | — | — | 139 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs ANA | |||||
| P2 08:17 | EV | Goal | #? (O'Connor) → 2-3 | Pettersson · O'Connor Oleksiak · Buium | Nesterenko · Malott · McQueen Luneau · Mintyukov Brossoit (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ ANA | |||||
| P2 06:36 | EV | Assist | Ohgren (Karlsson, Buium) → 1-1 | Rossi · Ohgren · Karlsson Buium · Hronek | Nesterenko · Killorn · McQueen Hinds · Luneau Dostal (G) |
| Oct 20 · vs CAR | |||||
| P1 10:10 | EV | Goal | Karlsson (Pettersson, DeBrusk) → 1-1 | DeBrusk · Pettersson · Karlsson Hronek · Pettersson | Carrier · Aho · Svechnikov Walker · Miller Kochetkov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Linus over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Ohgren VAN | 56 | 10 | |
| Filip Hronek VAN | 52 | 10 | |
| Zeev Buium VAN | 51 | 10 | |
| Drew O'Connor VAN | 50 | 9 | |
| Elias Pettersson VAN | 44 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats