Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots115 × 0.1+11.5
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1356 × 0.01+13.6
- total94 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24294 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 94 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.6 before — chances have dried up.
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.2/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CGY.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.5% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.5% (862 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.9%, worth PD −0.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Devils | 54 | 16 | 14 | 30 | -4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16:48 | 3 | 1 | 114 | 14.0% | 28.3% |
| 2021-22 | Devils | 76 | 24 | 22 | 46 | -14 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 16:30 | 3 | 0 | 168 | 14.3% | 40.5% |
| 2022-23 | Devils | 75 | 13 | 17 | 30 | -3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:25 | 2 | 1 | 131 | 9.9% | 32.9% |
| 2023-24 | Flames | 82 | 31 | 28 | 59 | -29 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 17:19 | 4 | 1 | 179 | 17.3% | 39.0% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 73 | 17 | 15 | 32 | -9 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 16:39 | 2 | 0 | 128 | 13.3% | 46.1% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 78 | 15 | 14 | 29 | -20 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 16:03 | 1 | 0 | 142 | 10.6% | 36.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:09 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 11.5% | 58.8% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 14 | 22 | 36 | — | 23 | — | 6 | — | 15:46 | — | — | 128 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Blake Lizotte (2025-25) · Nick Paul (2025-25) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs NYR | |||||
| P3 07:41 | PP | Assist | #? (Strome, Sharangovich) → 1-2 | Strome · Sharangovich · Suniev Parekh | Zibanejad · Tolvanen Pettersson · Schneider Korpisalo (G) |
| Nov 8 · vs PHI | |||||
| P1 15:26 | EV | Assist | #? (Kuznetsov, Sharangovich) → 1-1 | Frost · Sharangovich · Suniev Kuznetsov | Tippett · Zegras · Knuble Seeler · Benoit Vladar (G) |
| P2 05:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Suniev, Sharangovich) → 2-2 | Frost · Sharangovich · Suniev Middleton | Tippett · Zegras · Knuble Sanheim · Drysdale Vladar (G) |
| Nov 4 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 12:45 | EV | Goal | #? (Whitecloud, Frost) → 1-0 | Frost · Suniev Middleton · Whitecloud | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Wood Larsson · Dunn Daccord (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Yegor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aydar Suniev CGY | 85 | 10 | |
| Morgan Frost CGY | 79 | 10 | |
| Zach Whitecloud CGY | 57 | 10 | |
| Simon Nemec CGY | 55 | 10 | |
| Jacob Middleton CGY | 52 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats