Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 45?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots89 × 0.1+8.9
- PIM56 × 0.05+2.8
- ice time (min)1370 × 0.01+13.7
- total109 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242109 = 45/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 109 points is 45 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for MTL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.7
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 26.3% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.9% (501 shots before this season) — that's 2.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.6 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.9%, worth PD +2.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Dobson 0.0%, Hutson 8.1%, Guhle 11.8%, Anderson 21.2%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Avalanche | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 43.2% |
| 2021-22 | Avalanche | 71 | 13 | 20 | 33 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13:34 | 5 | 0 | 113 | 11.5% | 34.7% |
| 2022-23 | Avalanche | 82 | 14 | 16 | 30 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:57 | 3 | 0 | 116 | 12.1% | 41.4% |
| 2023-24 | Canadiens | 55 | 15 | 19 | 34 | -11 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 16:56 | 2 | 0 | 85 | 17.6% | 46.5% |
| 2024-25 | Canadiens | 82 | 15 | 11 | 26 | -21 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 15:08 | 3 | 0 | 118 | 12.7% | 42.8% |
| 2025-26 | Canadiens | 42 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14:29 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 21.3% | 47.5% |
| 2026-27 | Canadiens | 19 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -1 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22.7% | 50.7% |
| 84-G proj | Canadiens | 84 | 20 | 21 | 41 | — | 50 | — | 4 | — | 15:51 | — | — | 116 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Jaden Schwartz (2025-25) · Shane Pinto (2025-25) · Zachary Bolduc (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ BOS | |||||
| P1 02:34 | EV | Assist | #? (Xhekaj, Newhook) → 1-0 | Newhook · Kapanen Carrier · Xhekaj | Eyssimont · Geekie · Minten Lindholm · McAvoy Swayman (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 05:56 | EV | Goal | Newhook (Kapanen) → 1-0 | Dach · Newhook · Kapanen Carrier · Guhle | Blueger · Duhaime · McKenna Tanev · McCabe Bobrovsky (G) |
| P1 13:06 | EV | Goal | #? (Guhle, Dach) → 2-0 | Dach · Kapanen Dobson · Guhle | Blueger · Roslovic · Duhaime McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs UTA | |||||
| P1 17:10 | EV | Assist | #? (Dach, Newhook) → 2-2 | Dach · Newhook · Kapanen Engstrom | Trocheck · Crouse · Cooley Weegar · Peeke Cossa (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ DAL | |||||
| P1 16:05 | EV | Goal | Newhook (Dobson, Hutson) → 2-1 | Caufield · Newhook · Slafkovský Dobson · Hutson | Benn · Kiviranta · Hyry Heiskanen · Harley Oettinger (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Alex over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Dobson MTL | 71 | 10 | |
| Lane Hutson MTL | 65 | 10 | |
| Kaiden Guhle MTL | 52 | 10 | |
| Josh Anderson MTL | 52 | 9 | |
| Chris Kreider MTL | 49 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats