Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 31?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists14 × 1+14
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1005 × 0.01+10.1
- total76 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24276 = 31/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 76 points is 31 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (13 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.5 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 12 of 14 for DAL — missed 2 games (2026-10-10, 2026-10-13).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.3% shooting on 15 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.2% (370 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.6%, worth PD +0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Stars | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Stars | 26 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:10 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 19.4% | 14.3% |
| 2021-22 | Stars | 56 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Stars | 70 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:09 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 9.4% | 30.0% |
| 2023-24 | Avalanche | 56 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:50 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 6.3% | 28.6% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 79 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 15 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:31 | 2 | 0 | 84 | 19.0% | 47.9% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 51 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 6.0% | 40.0% |
| 2026-27 | Stars | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13.3% | 37.5% |
| 84-G proj | Stars | 84 | 14 | 14 | 28 | — | 21 | — | 0 | — | 13:31 | — | — | 120 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · @ WSH | |||||
| P1 08:56 | EV | Goal | Kiviranta (Faksa, Harley) → 1-0 | Perron · Faksa · Kiviranta Lundkvist · Harley | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou Chychrun · Hutson Thompson (G) |
| Oct 25 · vs NYI | |||||
| P3 04:10 | EV | Assist | Johnston (Lundkvist, Kiviranta) → 4-3 | Kiviranta · Johnston · Rantanen Lundkvist · Bichsel | Schenn · Duclair · Heineman Pulock · DeAngelo Sorokin (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Joel over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radek Faksa DAL | 62 | 8 | |
| Thomas Harley DAL | 50 | 10 | |
| Tyler Myers DAL | 42 | 10 | |
| Esa Lindell DAL | 40 | 8 | |
| Miro Heiskanen DAL | 31 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats