Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 63?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists28 × 1+28
- PP points20 × 0.5+10
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots216 × 0.1+21.6
- PIM24 × 0.05+1.2
- ice time (min)1674 × 0.01+16.7
- total152 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242152 = 63/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 152 points is 63 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for SJS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.0% shooting on 54 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.1% (293 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (7.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.5%, worth PD −1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Sharks | 74 | 18 | 27 | 45 | -15 | 18 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 15:51 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 14.2% | 36.5% |
| 2025-26 | Sharks | 69 | 24 | 35 | 59 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 18:11 | 5 | 1 | 166 | 14.5% | 31.3% |
| 2026-27 | Sharks | 21 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -10 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 19:56 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 13.0% | 45.0% |
| 84-G proj | Sharks | 84 | 25 | 28 | 54 | — | 31 | — | 19 | — | 18:12 | — | — | 186 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Patric Hornqvist (2021-21) · Josh Norris (2025-25) · Dylan Holloway (2025-25) · Leo Carlsson (2025-25) · Marco Rossi (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs PIT | |||||
| P3 11:32 | EV | Assist | Celebrini (Kesselring, Smith) → 1-2 | Smith · Celebrini · Stenberg Nurse · Kesselring | Crosby · Robertson · Kindel Karlsson · Stastney Murashov (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ DAL | |||||
| P1 07:22 | EV | Assist | #? (Celebrini, Smith) → 1-0 | Smith · Celebrini Trouba · Dickinson | Hintz · Kiviranta · Hyry Harley · Bichsel Oettinger (G) |
| P2 17:02 | PP | Goal | #? (Marchment, Celebrini) → 3-4 | Toffoli · Marchment · Celebrini · Stenberg | Steel Myers · Lindell Oettinger (G) |
| Nov 6 · @ MIN | |||||
| P2 12:11 | EV | Assist | #? (Orlov, Smith) → 1-1 | Smith · Misa Orlov · Pohlkamp | Brink · Yurov · Shabanov Brodin · Hughes Wallstedt (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs VAN | |||||
| P3 08:00 | PP | Goal | Smith (Orlov, Marchment) → 1-2 | Marchment · Smith · Celebrini · Stenberg Orlov | Boeser · Chytil Oleksiak · Mancini Merilainen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Will over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini SJS | 182 | 10 | |
| Michael Misa SJS | 72 | 10 | |
| Jacob Trouba SJS | 65 | 10 | |
| Darnell Nurse SJS | 60 | 10 | |
| Michael Kesselring SJS | 59 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats