Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 43?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals16 × 3+48
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots159 × 0.1+15.9
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1419 × 0.01+14.2
- total105 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242105 = 43/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 105 points is 43 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 17:46/game over the last 6, up 15% from 15:29 earlier in the season.
- Shooting more: 2.3 SOG/game lately vs 1.4 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Hot window: 5.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.5/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for CHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.8% shooting on 34 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.5% (36 shots before this season) — that's 1.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.2%, worth PD −2.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Blackhawks | 12 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:42 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 8.3% | 30.2% |
| 2026-27 | Blackhawks | 19 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:55 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 8.8% | 41.4% |
| 84-G proj | Blackhawks | 84 | 16 | 24 | 40 | — | 18 | — | 3 | — | 16:13 | — | — | 151 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 19 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs BUF | |||||
| P4 03:12 | EV | Assist | Donato (Frondell, Rinzel) → 3-2 | Donato · Frondell Rinzel | Norris · Ostlund Power Lyon (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ BOS | |||||
| P1 06:04 | PP | Goal | #? (Kane, Bedard) → 1-0 | Kane · Bertuzzi · Bedard · Kantserov | Lindholm · Khusnutdinov Lindholm · McAvoy DiPietro (G) |
| P2 03:31 | EV | Goal | #? (Bertuzzi, Rinzel) → 2-1 | Bertuzzi · Mangiapane Mastro · Rinzel | Kuraly · Jeannot · Kastelic Aspirot · Lohrei DiPietro (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Anton over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Vlasic CHI | 86 | 10 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi CHI | 81 | 10 | |
| Ian Cole CHI | 79 | 10 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen CHI | 69 | 8 | |
| Artyom Levshunov CHI | 44 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats