Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 50?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots149 × 0.1+14.9
- PIM194 × 0.05+9.7
- ice time (min)1044 × 0.01+10.4
- total120 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242120 = 50/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 120 points is 50 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (13 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.2 SOG/game lately vs 2.3 before — chances have dried up.
- Did not play the last 5 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 9 of 15 for ANA — missed 6 games (2026-11-05, 2026-11-06, 2026-11-08, 2026-11-11, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.4% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.3% (349 shots before this season) — that's 1.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.0%, worth PD +2.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Avalanche | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Avalanche | 17 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:24 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 2018-19 | Avalanche | 15 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:16 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11.1% | 40.0% |
| 2020-21 | Devils | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Devils | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:51 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 7.1% | 66.7% |
| 2022-23 | Bruins | 61 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:07 | 1 | 0 | 66 | 7.6% | 66.7% |
| 2023-24 | Flames | 59 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -7 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8:50 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 10.5% | 50.0% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 81 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 4 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9:36 | 3 | 0 | 86 | 7.0% | 34.0% |
| 2025-26 | Panthers | 78 | 17 | 15 | 32 | 14 | 113 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:26 | 2 | 0 | 104 | 16.3% | 22.6% |
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 13 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 17.4% | 85.7% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 22 | 19 | 41 | — | 117 | — | 1 | — | 13:45 | — | — | 141 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 8 of 9 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · vs VAN | |||||
| P1 15:52 | EV | Goal | Greer (LaCombe, Colangelo) → 1-0 | Colangelo · Greer · Washe LaCombe · Warren | Bains · Cotter · Sasson Hronek · Pettersson Meriläinen (G) |
| P3 12:23 | EV | Goal | Greer (Colangelo, LaCombe) → 5-2 | Colangelo · Greer · Washe LaCombe · Warren | O'Connor · Chytil · Lekkerimäki Buium · Hronek Meriläinen (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ PHI | |||||
| P2 13:07 | EV | Goal | Greer (Washe, Luneau) → 2-2 | Greer · Washe · Sennecke Hinds · Luneau | Couturier · Knuble · Gaucher Sanheim · Bonk Woll (G) |
| Oct 20 · @ NYI | |||||
| P1 17:18 | EV | Assist | Vatrano (Greer, Carlsson) → 1-2 | Vatrano · Greer · Nesterenko · Gauthier · Carlsson LaCombe · Luneau · Mintyukov | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom · Chaffee DeAngelo · Stanley · Schaefer Sorokin (G) |
| Oct 19 · @ NYR | |||||
| P3 19:27 | EV | Goal | Greer (Mintyukov) → 2-5 | Greer · Malott · Gauthier · McQueen · Washe · Klepov Jensen · Hinds · Mintyukov · Warren | Dowling · Bjorkstrand · Raddysh · Tolvanen · Cuylle · Laba Pettersson · Durzi · Schneider · Smits Garand (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with A.J. over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson LaCombe ANA | 49 | 10 | |
| Tristan Luneau ANA | 49 | 10 | |
| Tim Washe ANA | 48 | 10 | |
| Cutter Gauthier ANA | 43 | 8 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov ANA | 40 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats