Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists20 × 1+20
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots252 × 0.1+25.2
- PIM32 × 0.05+1.6
- ice time (min)1741 × 0.01+17.4
- total137 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242137 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 137 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.3/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for CBJ.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −5.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.3% shooting on 48 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.0% (520 shots before this season) — that's 2.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.9%, worth PD −5.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Blue Jackets | 49 | 12 | 15 | 27 | -21 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:43 | 1 | 0 | 115 | 10.4% | 43.6% |
| 2024-25 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 31 | 23 | 54 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17:29 | 3 | 0 | 191 | 16.2% | 41.2% |
| 2025-26 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 24 | 35 | 59 | -13 | 38 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 18:54 | 3 | 2 | 214 | 11.2% | 49.8% |
| 2026-27 | Blue Jackets | 17 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:48 | 1 | 1 | 50 | 8.0% | 60.1% |
| 84-G proj | Blue Jackets | 84 | 22 | 20 | 42 | — | 37 | — | 11 | — | 18:21 | — | — | 199 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · James Neal (2020-20) · Alex Chiasson (2021-21) · Pius Suter (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · @ PHI | |||||
| P1 10:58 | EV | Goal | Fantilli (Johnson, #?) → 1-0 | Fantilli · Johnson Fabbro · Gudbranson | Cates · Zegras Sanheim · Bonk Vladar (G) |
| P4 02:22 | EV | Assist | Johnson (Fantilli, Werenski) → 4-3 | Coyle · Sillinger · Voronkov · Fantilli · Monahan · Olivier · Nichushkin · Garland · Knies · Johnson · Belluz · Lomberg Christiansen · Mateychuk · Werenski · Fabbro · Gudbranson · Severson | Couturier · Bump · Cates · Michkov · Barkey York · Bonk Vladar (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs VGK | |||||
| P4 00:59 | PP | Goal | Fantilli (Coyle, Johnson) → 2-1 | Coyle · Sillinger · Voronkov · Fantilli · Monahan · Olivier · Nichushkin · Garland · Knies · Johnson · Belluz · Lomberg Christiansen · Mateychuk · Soucy · Werenski · Gudbranson · Severson | Eichel McNabb · Lauzon · Theodore · Coghlan Hart (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Adam over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Johnson CBJ | 142 | 10 | |
| Zach Werenski CBJ | 125 | 10 | |
| Matthew Knies CBJ | 122 | 10 | |
| Damon Severson CBJ | 78 | 10 | |
| Denton Mateychuk CBJ | 65 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats