Wins by season
Career NHL wins, ending with the projection at a 60-start workload (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 82?
Every fantasy goalie category, scored on the season model's projections at a 60-start workload:
- proj wins33 × 4.5+148.5
- proj shutouts2.5 × 3+7.5
- SV% 0.895 vs .900-0.005 × 250-1.3
- GAA 3.17 vs 2.70-0.47 × 50-23.5
- total131 pool points · an elite goalie season scores 160131 = 82/100
Weights: a win is worth 4.5 (the heaviest goalie category in every format), a shutout 3, SV% pays 250 per full point above .900 and GAA pays 50 per hundredth below 2.70. 100 = a Vezina-tier season (~26 W, 6 SO, .918, 2.45). Projections shrink SV% toward career and league averages because save percentage repeats poorly year to year; wins lean on team quality for the same reason.
Season stats — goaltending
NHL regular-season goaltending numbers from the league's goalie feed — wins, GAA, save% and shutouts, season by season. Skater columns (G/A/P) would be all zeros for a goalie, so they're gone. The 60-start proj line is a model, not a pace: save% is projected with empirical-Bayes shrinkage toward career and league (save% is weakly repeatable — Schuckers 2016; a James–Stein study on NHL save% found shrinkage beats the raw estimate 2.2× in error), GAA is rebuilt from its SA/60 × (1−SV%) identity, shutouts are the Poisson zero probability at the projected goals-against rate (Buttrey & Washburn, JQAS 2011), and wins are regressed toward the league per-start rate because wins are mostly a team stat (Berri & Brook 2010). Backtested on 330 goalie seasons from our own data: 26% lower save% error and 16% lower GAA error than naive last-year pace. Hockey's honest truth: save% barely repeats, so this model shrinks hard on purpose.
| Season | Team | GP | GS | W | L | OT | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-18 | PHI | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2.75 | 90.5% | 0 |
| 18-19 | PHI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5.08 | 80.6% | 0 |
| 19-20 | PHI | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.55 | 89.0% | 0 |
| 20-21 | PHI | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3.33 | 89.3% | 0 |
| 21-22 | CAR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.93 | 90.8% | 0 |
| 22-23 | FLA | 19 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 3.02 | 90.9% | 1 |
| 23-24 | DET | 44 | 43 | 21 | 18 | 5 | 3.05 | 90.4% | 2 |
| 24-25 | DET | 30 | 26 | 14 | 9 | 1 | 2.81 | 89.6% | 1 |
| 25-26 | BUF | 46 | 42 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 2.74 | 90.7% | 3 |
| 60-start proj | BUF | 60 | 60 | 33 | 20 | 6 | 3.17 | 89.5% | 2.5 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats