Braden Schneider
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 30?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots126 × 0.1+12.6
- PIM50 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1554 × 0.01+15.5
- total50 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16650 = 30/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 50 points is 30 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 20:53/game over the last 6, up 19% from 17:30 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −2.3
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 30 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.4% (396 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.6 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.6%, worth PD −2.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Rangers | 43 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Rangers | 81 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 1 | 0 | 79 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Rangers | 82 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:54 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Rangers | 80 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:52 | 1 | 1 | 95 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Rangers | 82 | 2 | 16 | 18 | -5 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 | 0 | 0 | 102 | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:30 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 2 | 13 | 15 | — | 50 | — | 0 | — | 18:43 | — | — | 116 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jeremy Lauzon (2025-25) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25) · Brett Pesce (2025-25) · Justin Holl (2024-24) · Luke Schenn (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 · vs ANA | |||||
| P3 03:26 | EV | Assist | Bjorkstrand (Raddysh, Schneider) → 5-0 | Dowling · Bjorkstrand · Raddysh Schneider · Smits | Malott · Gauthier · McQueen Hinds · Luneau Husso (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Braden over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Pettersson NYR | 112 | 10 | |
| Noah Laba NYR | 67 | 10 | |
| Will Cuylle NYR | 61 | 10 | |
| J.T. Miller NYR | 57 | 10 | |
| Tye Kartye NYR | 55 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats