Brett Pesce
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 43?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals5 × 3+15
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots84 × 0.1+8.4
- PIM53 × 0.05+2.7
- ice time (min)1763 × 0.01+17.6
- total71 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16671 = 43/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 71 points is 43 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 1 game (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 16 of 17 for NJD — missed 1 game (2026-11-12).
- Injury report (2026-11-12): listed — Brett Pesce was not in the lineup because of an illness for the Devils against the Washington Capitals on Thursday. The defenseman, who is u…
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.3% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.3% (1010 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.5%, worth PD +0.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Hurricanes | 69 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -7 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 18:46 | 1 | 0 | 85 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Hurricanes | 82 | 2 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:12 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Hurricanes | 65 | 3 | 16 | 19 | -6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Hurricanes | 73 | 7 | 22 | 29 | 35 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:29 | 2 | 0 | 98 | 7.1% | 100.0% |
| 2019-20 | Hurricanes | 61 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:53 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Hurricanes | 55 | 4 | 21 | 25 | 14 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 22:48 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Hurricanes | 70 | 7 | 21 | 28 | 5 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 21:42 | 3 | 1 | 148 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Hurricanes | 82 | 5 | 25 | 30 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 22:01 | 2 | 1 | 144 | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Hurricanes | 70 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 1 | 1 | 107 | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Devils | 72 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -5 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:19 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Devils | 37 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 19 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 5 | 25 | 29 | — | 52 | — | 0 | — | 20:15 | — | — | 93 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jonas Brodin (2025-25) · Olli Maatta (2025-25) · Hampus Lindholm (2025-25) · Neal Pionk (2025-25) · Jaccob Slavin (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ NYI | |||||
| P3 06:08 | EV | Assist | Evangelista (Pesce, Hischier) → 3-4 | Meier · Bratt · Hischier · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Evangelista Hamilton · Pesce · Siegenthaler · Hughes | Palmieri · Palat · Pageau · Duclair · Horvat · Holmstrom Pelech · DeAngelo · Stanley · Schaefer Sorokin (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs STL | |||||
| P1 07:34 | EV | Assist | Hughes (Pesce, Hughes) → 1-0 | Brown · Bratt · Glass · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Lombardi Hamilton · Pesce · Siegenthaler · Hughes | Buchnevich · McMichael · Neighbours · McTavish · Kaskimaki · Dvorsky Fowler · Parayko · Carlo · Broberg Binnington (G) |
| P2 18:19 | EV | Assist | Mantha (Rodrigues, Pesce) → 4-1 | Mantha · Rodrigues · Bratt · Boqvist · Hughes · Gritsyuk Pesce · Kovacevic · Chisholm · Hughes | Johnston · Toropchenko · Suter · McMichael · McTavish · Kaskimaki Fowler · Carlo · Broberg · Jiricek Binnington (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ DAL | |||||
| P3 13:15 | EV | Assist | Hughes (Pesce, Bratt) → 5-1 | Bratt · Gritsyuk · Hughes · Lombardi Pesce · Hughes | Blackwell · Seminoff · Hryckowian Heiskanen · Lundkvist DeSmith (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs LAK | |||||
| P3 08:08 | EV | Goal | Pesce (Evangelista, Gritsyuk) → 2-1 | Hischier · Evangelista · Gritsyuk Dillon · Pesce | Lee · Helenius · Perry Doughty · Gustafsson Forsberg (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Brett over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Hughes NJD | 182 | 10 | |
| Nico Hischier NJD | 65 | 10 | |
| Jack Hughes NJD | 60 | 10 | |
| Timo Meier NJD | 59 | 10 | |
| Cody Glass NJD | 53 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats