Cole Hutson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 86?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals21 × 3+63
- proj assists32 × 1+32
- PP points16 × 0.5+8
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots168 × 0.1+16.8
- PIM63 × 0.05+3.2
- ice time (min)1622 × 0.01+16.2
- total143 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166143 = 86/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 143 points is 86 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 11.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 4.3/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for WSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +4.8
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 15.6% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.4% (22 shots before this season) — that's 2.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.3%, worth PD +4.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Tuch 26.2%, Strome 9.4%, Kyrou 20.8%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 17:27 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 17 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19:23 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 21 | 32 | 53 | — | 58 | — | 10 | — | 19:13 | — | — | 137 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 20 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ NJD | |||||
| P1 14:10 | PP | Assist | Leonard (Hutson) → 1-1 | Jenner · Tuch · Dubois · Protas · Sourdif · Leonard · Protas Roy · Fehervary · Hutson | Rodrigues · Bratt · Hischier · Hughes · Gritsyuk Dillon · Siegenthaler · Kolyachonok · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ OTT | |||||
| P3 12:31 | EV | Assist | Dubois (Hutson, Wilson) → 2-2 | Jenner · Wilson · Dubois · Protas · Sourdif · Leonard Roy · Chychrun · Hutson | Giroux · Zetterlund · Cozens · Pinto · Greig · Stützle Chabot · Spence · Sanderson · Zub Ersson (G) |
| P4 01:14 | EV | Goal | Hutson (Ovechkin, #?) → 3-2 | Ovechkin · Tuch Chychrun · Hutson | Zetterlund · Pinto Sanderson · Zub Ersson (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs DAL | |||||
| P2 11:00 | PP | Assist | Kyrou (Strome, Hutson) → 1-4 | Ovechkin · Wilson · Tuch · Strome · Kyrou · Dubois · Leonard Ivany · Hutson | Perron · Faksa · Steel · Kiviranta · Hyry Myers · Lindell · Lundkvist · Bichsel Oettinger (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs MIN | |||||
| P2 19:54 | EV | Assist | Sourdif (Hutson, Beauvillier) → 1-2 | Ovechkin · Tuch · Strome · Beauvillier · Kyrou · Sourdif Roy · Chychrun · Ivany · Hutson | Hartman · Trenin · Kaprizov · Sturm Brodin · Hughes Wallstedt (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Cole over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch WSH | 73 | 10 | |
| Dylan Strome WSH | 65 | 10 | |
| Jack St. Ivany WSH | 63 | 6 | |
| Jordan Kyrou WSH | 60 | 10 | |
| Ryan Leonard WSH | 60 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats