Colin Blackwell
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 21?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals7 × 3+21
- proj assists12 × 1+12
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM13 × 0.05+0.7
- ice time (min)831 × 0.01+8.3
- total52 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24252 = 21/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 52 points is 21 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (13 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 2 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 11 of 14 for DAL — missed 3 games (2026-11-03, 2026-11-07, 2026-11-12).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −2.3
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 15 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.7% (389 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.8 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.4%, worth PD −2.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Predators | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:44 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 44.8% |
| 2019-20 | Predators | 27 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 9.7% | 56.1% |
| 2020-21 | Rangers | 47 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 14:00 | 2 | 0 | 64 | 18.8% | 48.4% |
| 2021-22 | Kraken | 39 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:29 | 1 | 0 | 61 | 13.1% | 46.4% |
| 2021-22 | Maple Leafs | 19 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:48 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12.5% | 51.8% |
| 2022-23 | Blackhawks | 53 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 3.8% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Blackhawks | 44 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:30 | 2 | 0 | 88 | 9.1% | 45.7% |
| 2024-25 | Stars | 63 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11:34 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 9.5% | 49.0% |
| 2025-26 | Stars | 70 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -2 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 1 | 0 | 61 | 6.6% | 43.2% |
| 2026-27 | Stars | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.0% | 60.9% |
| 84-G proj | Stars | 84 | 7 | 12 | 20 | — | 28 | — | 0 | — | 12:26 | — | — | 117 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 8 of 10 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · vs NJD | |||||
| P2 16:08 | EV | Assist | Hryckowian (Myers, Blackwell) → 1-3 | Blackwell · Hyry · Hryckowian Capobianco · Myers | Rodrigues · Mantha · Boqvist Hamilton · Hughes Hellebuyck (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Colin over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radek Faksa DAL | 49 | 8 | |
| Miro Heiskanen DAL | 36 | 9 | |
| Thomas Harley DAL | 34 | 10 | |
| Lian Bichsel DAL | 34 | 10 | |
| Tyler Myers DAL | 33 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats