Connor Bedard
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 82?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals30 × 3+90
- proj assists49 × 1+49
- PP points28 × 0.5+14
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots259 × 0.1+25.9
- PIM70 × 0.05+3.5
- ice time (min)1702 × 0.01+17
- total199 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242199 = 82/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 199 points is 82 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (12 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 3.5 SOG/game lately vs 2.6 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 13 of 14 for CHI — missed 1 game (2026-10-10).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.5% shooting on 37 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.3% (627 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.7%, worth PD +1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Blackhawks | 68 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -44 | 28 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 19:47 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 10.7% | 38.9% |
| 2024-25 | Blackhawks | 82 | 23 | 44 | 67 | -36 | 70 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 20:17 | 5 | 1 | 195 | 11.8% | 38.3% |
| 2025-26 | Blackhawks | 69 | 30 | 45 | 75 | -18 | 50 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 20:52 | 5 | 1 | 226 | 13.3% | 47.1% |
| 2026-27 | Blackhawks | 13 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 20:26 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 12.8% | 44.9% |
| 84-G proj | Blackhawks | 84 | 30 | 49 | 78 | — | 56 | — | 24 | — | 17:43 | — | — | 193 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Lucas Raymond (2025-25) · Roope Hintz (2025-25) · Tim Stützle (2025-25) · Robert Thomas (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs BUF | |||||
| P1 12:22 | PP | Assist | Nazar (Bedard, Kantserov) → 1-1 | Kane · Donato · Mangiapane · Nazar · Bedard · Kantserov · Frondell Vlasic · Rinzel · Levshunov | Thompson · McLeod · Krebs · Kulich · Benson Timmins · Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power Lyon (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ CAR | |||||
| P3 05:56 | EV | Assist | Kantserov (Bedard, Vlasic) → 1-7 | Bertuzzi · Greenway · Smith · Bedard · Kantserov · Boucher Vlasic · Kaiser · Korchinski · Rinzel | Hall · Jankowski · Martinook · Ehlers · Kotkaniemi · Jarvis Gostisbehere · Slavin · Chatfield · Nikishin Kochetkov (G) |
| P3 13:41 | EV | Goal | Bedard (Vlasic) → 2-7 | Bertuzzi · Donato · Nazar · Bedard · Moore · Kantserov Vlasic · Kaiser · Rinzel · Levshunov | Ehlers · Aho · Svechnikov · Jarvis · Stankoven · Blake Walker · Miller Kochetkov (G) |
| Nov 4 · @ FLA | |||||
| P2 16:48 | EV | Assist | Kantserov (Mastro, Bedard) → 1-3 | Bertuzzi · Donato · Nazar · Bedard · Moore · Kantserov Cole · Kaiser · Mastro · Rinzel | Eller · Hathaway · Bennett · Luostarinen · Lundell · Vilmanis Jones · Ekblad · Forsling · Mikkola Markstrom (G) |
| P3 16:09 | EV | Assist | Nazar (Rinzel, Bedard) → 3-4 | Donato · Greenway · Nazar · Bedard · Moore · Kantserov · Frondell Vlasic · Kaiser · Rinzel | Verhaeghe · Bennett · Tkachuk · Tkachuk · Vilmanis Kulikov · Jones · Forsling · Balinskis Markstrom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Connor over the last 9 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kantserov CHI | 156 | 9 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi CHI | 83 | 9 | |
| Artyom Levshunov CHI | 77 | 9 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser CHI | 70 | 9 | |
| Patrick Kane CHI | 70 | 6 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats