Denton Mateychuk
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 60?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots152 × 0.1+15.2
- PIM32 × 0.05+1.6
- ice time (min)1883 × 0.01+18.8
- total99 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16699 = 60/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 99 points is 60 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for CBJ.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.8% shooting on 29 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 9.5% (132 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.9%, worth PD +2.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Blue Jackets | 45 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Blue Jackets | 75 | 13 | 18 | 31 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 19:11 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Blue Jackets | 17 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blue Jackets | 84 | 15 | 18 | 33 | — | 38 | — | 2 | — | 20:59 | — | — | 130 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Denton Mateychuk (2025-25) · Olen Zellweger (2025-25) · Simon Nemec (2025-25) · Jake Walman (2025-25) · Oliver Kylington (2023-23).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 · @ BUF | |||||
| P1 16:00 | EV | Assist | Johnson (Monahan, Mateychuk) → 1-1 | Monahan · Lorentz · Voronkov · Johnson · Knies · Williams Provorov · Fabbro · Christiansen · Mateychuk | Zucker · Carrick · Malenstyn · Norris · Kozak · Kulich Samuelsson · Dahlin · Zellweger · Metsa Luukkonen (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs COL | |||||
| P2 12:42 | EV | Assist | Nichushkin (Monahan, Mateychuk) → 6-1 | Monahan · Nichushkin · Garland · Lomberg · Olivier · Sillinger Provorov · Fabbro · Christiansen · Mateychuk | Nelson · Schwartz · Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas · Hughes Burns · Toews · Juulsen · Makar Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ CAR | |||||
| P3 06:56 | EV | Goal | Mateychuk (Christiansen, Monahan) → 1-3 | Monahan · Heinen · Olivier · Sillinger Gudbranson · Werenski · Christiansen · Mateychuk | Ehlers · Svechnikov · Jarvis · Stankoven · Blake Gostisbehere · Walker · Miller Kochetkov (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ PHI | |||||
| P1 13:44 | EV | Goal | Mateychuk (Olivier, Knies) → 3-0 | Coyle · Olivier · Knies Christiansen · Mateychuk | Cates · Michkov · Martone York · Drysdale Vladar (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs VGK | |||||
| P1 11:51 | EV | Goal | Mateychuk (Johnson, Nichushkin) → 1-0 | Fantilli · Nichushkin · Johnson Mateychuk · Severson | Holtz · Howden · Karlsson Andersson · Lauzon Hart (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Denton over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin CBJ | 77 | 10 | |
| Ivan Provorov CBJ | 75 | 6 | |
| Sean Monahan CBJ | 70 | 10 | |
| Adam Fantilli CBJ | 65 | 10 | |
| Jake Christiansen CBJ | 60 | 8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats