Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 34?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals16 × 3+48
- proj assists14 × 1+14
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM17 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1021 × 0.01+10.2
- total83 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24283 = 34/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 83 points is 34 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.4% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.2% (768 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.7%, worth PD +1.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Predators | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Predators | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Predators | 40 | 11 | 11 | 22 | -10 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 14:48 | 4 | 1 | 65 | 16.9% | 16.7% |
| 2021-22 | Predators | 75 | 11 | 12 | 23 | -7 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13:26 | 1 | 0 | 151 | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Predators | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 10.5% | 33.3% |
| 2022-23 | Kraken | 48 | 16 | 11 | 27 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 14:59 | 3 | 0 | 97 | 16.5% | 22.2% |
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 81 | 16 | 25 | 41 | -15 | 24 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 15:39 | 3 | 0 | 153 | 10.5% | 34.3% |
| 2024-25 | Kraken | 81 | 23 | 12 | 35 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14:19 | 3 | 0 | 137 | 16.8% | 45.5% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 78 | 12 | 24 | 36 | -18 | 30 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 16:03 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 17.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 16 | 14 | 31 | — | 27 | — | 9 | — | 13:18 | — | — | 115 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Mark Jankowski (2025-25) · Cody Glass (2025-25) · Brett Howden (2025-25) · Nick Paul (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs STL | |||||
| P3 09:01 | EV | Assist | Bjorkstrand (Tolvanen, Cuylle) → 2-0 | Bjorkstrand · Tolvanen · Cuylle · Rempe · Chmelar · Laba Pettersson · Schneider · Morrow · Smits | Buchnevich · Berggren · McMichael · Neighbours · McTavish · Dvorsky Fowler · Jiricek Hofer (G) |
| P3 17:59 | EV | Goal | Tolvanen (Miller, Fox) → 3-0 | Miller · Tolvanen · Kartye · Rempe · Chmelar · Laba Pettersson · Gavrikov · Fox · Schneider | Johnston · Thomas · Toropchenko · Suter · Neighbours · McTavish · Snuggerud Carlo · Broberg · Barron · Lindstein Hofer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Eeli over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cuylle NYR | 74 | 10 | |
| Noah Laba NYR | 52 | 10 | |
| Marcus Pettersson NYR | 45 | 10 | |
| Braden Schneider NYR | 45 | 10 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov NYR | 34 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats