Ivan Provorov
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 69?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists15 × 1+15
- PP points17 × 0.5+8.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots269 × 0.1+26.9
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)1798 × 0.01+18
- total115 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166115 = 69/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 115 points is 69 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (5 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 6 of 14 for CBJ — missed 8 games (2026-10-20, 2026-10-24, 2026-10-27, 2026-10-29, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.6
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 12.5% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.2% (1444 shots before this season) — that's 1.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.0 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.5%, worth PD +3.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Mateychuk 13.8%, Nichushkin 8.7%, Sillinger 14.8%, Fantilli 8.3%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Flyers | 82 | 6 | 24 | 30 | -7 | 34 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 21:59 | 1 | 0 | 161 | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Flyers | 82 | 17 | 24 | 41 | 17 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 24:09 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Flyers | 82 | 7 | 19 | 26 | -16 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 25:07 | 1 | 0 | 145 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Flyers | 69 | 13 | 23 | 36 | 11 | 24 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 24:51 | 3 | 1 | 150 | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Flyers | 56 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 25:00 | 2 | 1 | 126 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Flyers | 79 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -20 | 34 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 24:53 | 1 | 1 | 170 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Flyers | 82 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -17 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:01 | 1 | 1 | 115 | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 5 | 27 | 32 | -11 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 22:10 | 0 | 0 | 107 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 7 | 26 | 33 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 23:21 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 14 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 24:49 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Blue Jackets | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:18 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blue Jackets | 84 | 15 | 15 | 30 | — | 44 | — | 7 | — | 19:46 | — | — | 146 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs FLA | |||||
| P2 19:41 | EV | Goal | Provorov (Voronkov, Nichushkin) → 1-2 | Coyle · Nichushkin · Olivier · Voronkov · Sillinger · Fantilli Provorov · Mateychuk | Hathaway · Imama · Luostarinen · Schwindt · Lundell · Devine Kulikov · Gudas · Ekblad · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 07:37 | PP | Goal | Provorov (Garland, Nichushkin) → 2-0 | Coyle · Monahan · Nichushkin · Garland · Olivier · Sillinger Severson · Werenski · Provorov · Mateychuk | Nelson · Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Burns · Kulak · Toews · Makar Wedgewood (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ivan over the last 6 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denton Mateychuk CBJ | 75 | 6 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin CBJ | 43 | 6 | |
| Cole Sillinger CBJ | 39 | 6 | |
| Adam Fantilli CBJ | 38 | 6 | |
| Charlie Coyle CBJ | 37 | 6 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats