Jake Allen

Jake Allen

G · Left catchesAge 366'2" · 197 lbFredericton, Canada
cap hit$1.8M5-year signingsigned July 1, 2025contract ledger →

Wins by season

Career NHL wins, ending with the projection at a 60-start workload (violet).

19: 19 pts191920: 14 pts1421: 11 pts112122: 9 pts923: 15 pts152324: 12 pts1225: 13 pts132526: 17 pts1730PROJ27: 6 pts (projected 30)27

Pool value

Projected full-season fantasy worth.

72/100
why 72?

Every fantasy goalie category, scored on the season model's projections at a 60-start workload:

  • proj wins30 × 4.5+135
  • proj shutouts2.4 × 3+7.2
  • SV% 0.894 vs .900-0.006 × 250-1.5
  • GAA 3.21 vs 2.70-0.51 × 50-25.5
  • total115 pool points  ·  an elite goalie season scores 160115 = 72/100

Weights: a win is worth 4.5 (the heaviest goalie category in every format), a shutout 3, SV% pays 250 per full point above .900 and GAA pays 50 per hundredth below 2.70. 100 = a Vezina-tier season (~26 W, 6 SO, .918, 2.45). Projections shrink SV% toward career and league averages because save percentage repeats poorly year to year; wins lean on team quality for the same reason.

Season stats — goaltending

NHL regular-season goaltending numbers from the league's goalie feed — wins, GAA, save% and shutouts, season by season. Skater columns (G/A/P) would be all zeros for a goalie, so they're gone. The 60-start proj line is a model, not a pace: save% is projected with empirical-Bayes shrinkage toward career and league (save% is weakly repeatable — Schuckers 2016; a James–Stein study on NHL save% found shrinkage beats the raw estimate 2.2× in error), GAA is rebuilt from its SA/60 × (1−SV%) identity, shutouts are the Poisson zero probability at the projected goals-against rate (Buttrey & Washburn, JQAS 2011), and wins are regressed toward the league per-start rate because wins are mostly a team stat (Berri & Brook 2010). Backtested on 330 goalie seasons from our own data: 26% lower save% error and 16% lower GAA error than naive last-year pace. Hockey's honest truth: save% barely repeats, so this model shrinks hard on purpose.

SeasonTeamGPGSWLOTGAASV%SO
17-18STL5956272532.7590.6%1
18-19STL4745191782.8290.5%3
19-20STL292514742.1092.8%2
20-21MTL2927111252.6890.7%0
21-22MTL353592043.3090.5%2
22-23MTL4241152433.5589.1%1
23-24MTL,NJD3433121843.4489.5%0
24-25NJD3129131612.6690.8%4
25-26NJD3736171722.7490.4%1
26-27NJD10106403.1988.1%0
60-start projNJD6060302643.2189.4%2.4

Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats