Wins by season
Career NHL wins, ending with the projection at a 60-start workload (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 53?
Every fantasy goalie category, scored on the season model's projections at a 60-start workload:
- proj wins24 × 4.5+108
- proj shutouts2.3 × 3+6.9
- SV% 0.891 vs .900-0.009 × 250-2.3
- GAA 3.28 vs 2.70-0.58 × 50-29
- total84 pool points · an elite goalie season scores 16084 = 53/100
Weights: a win is worth 4.5 (the heaviest goalie category in every format), a shutout 3, SV% pays 250 per full point above .900 and GAA pays 50 per hundredth below 2.70. 100 = a Vezina-tier season (~26 W, 6 SO, .918, 2.45). Projections shrink SV% toward career and league averages because save percentage repeats poorly year to year; wins lean on team quality for the same reason.
Season stats — goaltending
NHL regular-season goaltending numbers from the league's goalie feed — wins, GAA, save% and shutouts, season by season. Skater columns (G/A/P) would be all zeros for a goalie, so they're gone. The 60-start proj line is a model, not a pace: save% is projected with empirical-Bayes shrinkage toward career and league (save% is weakly repeatable — Schuckers 2016; a James–Stein study on NHL save% found shrinkage beats the raw estimate 2.2× in error), GAA is rebuilt from its SA/60 × (1−SV%) identity, shutouts are the Poisson zero probability at the projected goals-against rate (Buttrey & Washburn, JQAS 2011), and wins are regressed toward the league per-start rate because wins are mostly a team stat (Berri & Brook 2010). Backtested on 330 goalie seasons from our own data: 26% lower save% error and 16% lower GAA error than naive last-year pace. Hockey's honest truth: save% barely repeats, so this model shrinks hard on purpose.
| Season | Team | GP | GS | W | L | OT | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24-25 | PIT | 15 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 3.81 | 88.5% | 0 |
| 60-start proj | PIT | 60 | 60 | 24 | 36 | 6 | 3.28 | 89.1% | 2.3 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats