Wins by season
Career NHL wins, ending with the projection at a 60-start workload (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 83?
Every fantasy goalie category, scored on the season model's projections at a 60-start workload:
- proj wins32 × 4.5+144
- proj shutouts2.8 × 3+8.4
- SV% 0.894 vs .900-0.006 × 250-1.5
- GAA 3.06 vs 2.70-0.36 × 50-18
- total133 pool points · an elite goalie season scores 160133 = 83/100
Weights: a win is worth 4.5 (the heaviest goalie category in every format), a shutout 3, SV% pays 250 per full point above .900 and GAA pays 50 per hundredth below 2.70. 100 = a Vezina-tier season (~26 W, 6 SO, .918, 2.45). Projections shrink SV% toward career and league averages because save percentage repeats poorly year to year; wins lean on team quality for the same reason.
Season stats — goaltending
NHL regular-season goaltending numbers from the league's goalie feed — wins, GAA, save% and shutouts, season by season. Skater columns (G/A/P) would be all zeros for a goalie, so they're gone. The 60-start proj line is a model, not a pace: save% is projected with empirical-Bayes shrinkage toward career and league (save% is weakly repeatable — Schuckers 2016; a James–Stein study on NHL save% found shrinkage beats the raw estimate 2.2× in error), GAA is rebuilt from its SA/60 × (1−SV%) identity, shutouts are the Poisson zero probability at the projected goals-against rate (Buttrey & Washburn, JQAS 2011), and wins are regressed toward the league per-start rate because wins are mostly a team stat (Berri & Brook 2010). Backtested on 330 goalie seasons from our own data: 26% lower save% error and 16% lower GAA error than naive last-year pace. Hockey's honest truth: save% barely repeats, so this model shrinks hard on purpose.
| Season | Team | GP | GS | W | L | OT | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21-22 | STL | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.07 | 88.0% | 0 |
| 22-23 | STL | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3.22 | 90.5% | 0 |
| 23-24 | STL | 30 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2.65 | 91.4% | 1 |
| 24-25 | STL | 31 | 28 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 2.64 | 90.4% | 1 |
| 25-26 | STL | 46 | 43 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 2.61 | 91.0% | 6 |
| 26-27 | STL | 13 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2.33 | 92.0% | 1 |
| 60-start proj | STL | 60 | 60 | 32 | 22 | 5 | 3.06 | 89.4% | 2.8 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats