Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 51?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals9 × 3+27
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals6 × 0.5+3
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots102 × 0.1+10.2
- PIM60 × 0.05+3
- ice time (min)1950 × 0.01+19.5
- total85 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16685 = 51/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 85 points is 51 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (14 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.3 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for MTL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.8% shooting on 17 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.9% (254 shots before this season) — that's 0.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.9%, worth PD +1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Canadiens | 44 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -19 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Canadiens | 70 | 6 | 16 | 22 | -8 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:51 | 1 | 1 | 95 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Canadiens | 55 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Canadiens | 39 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:28 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Canadiens | 15 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:56 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Canadiens | 84 | 9 | 22 | 31 | — | 55 | — | 0 | — | 21:18 | — | — | 103 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Oliver Kylington (2023-23) · Shakir Mukhamadullin (2025-25) · Kaiden Guhle (2025-25) · Declan Chisholm (2025-25) · Simon Nemec (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 13:06 | EV | Assist | #? (Guhle, Dach) → 2-0 | Dach · Kapanen Dobson · Guhle | Blueger · Roslovic · Duhaime McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs WPG | |||||
| P1 18:18 | EV | Assist | #? (Kreider, Guhle) → 2-0 | Kreider · Evans Carrier · Guhle | Niederreiter · Koepke · Björck Ferraro · Salomonsson Skinner (G) |
| Oct 25 · @ WPG | |||||
| P2 11:04 | EV | Goal | Guhle (Caufield, Slafkovský) → 2-0 | Caufield · Slafkovský · Kapanen Matheson · Guhle | Vilardi · Björck · Connor Ferraro · Salomonsson Skinner (G) |
| Oct 23 · @ CHI | |||||
| P2 07:45 | SH | Assist | Evans (Guhle) → 2-1 | Newhook · Danault · Evans Guhle · Carrier · Dobson | Bertuzzi · Kantserov · Teravainen · Kane · Bedard Knight (G) |
| P2 18:26 | EV | Goal | Guhle (Evans, Carrier) → 3-1 | Anderson · Kreider · Evans Guhle · Carrier | Kantserov · Kane · Bedard Rinzel · Mastro Knight (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Kaiden over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Carrier MTL | 175 | 10 | |
| Jake Evans MTL | 91 | 10 | |
| Phillip Danault MTL | 82 | 10 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský MTL | 62 | 10 | |
| Josh Anderson MTL | 58 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats