Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 35?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1331 × 0.01+13.3
- total84 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24284 = 35/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 84 points is 35 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for FLA.
- Veteran card: age 37 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.1% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.1% (1021 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.8%, worth PD −0.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | Blues | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:49 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 25.0% | 47.4% |
| 2010-11 | Canadiens | 77 | 7 | 10 | 17 | -4 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 | 2 | 0 | 79 | 8.9% | 42.5% |
| 2011-12 | Canadiens | 79 | 16 | 12 | 28 | -5 | 66 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15:19 | 2 | 0 | 129 | 12.4% | 46.6% |
| 2012-13 | Canadiens | 46 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 14:50 | 1 | 0 | 84 | 9.5% | 49.3% |
| 2013-14 | Canadiens | 77 | 12 | 14 | 26 | -15 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15:58 | 3 | 0 | 137 | 8.8% | 53.2% |
| 2014-15 | Canadiens | 77 | 15 | 12 | 27 | -6 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:30 | 7 | 1 | 150 | 10.0% | 51.7% |
| 2015-16 | Canadiens | 79 | 13 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15:15 | 2 | 0 | 149 | 8.7% | 50.6% |
| 2016-17 | Capitals | 81 | 12 | 13 | 25 | 15 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13:54 | 2 | 0 | 115 | 10.4% | 47.1% |
| 2017-18 | Capitals | 81 | 18 | 20 | 38 | -6 | 38 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15:18 | 2 | 0 | 161 | 11.2% | 49.3% |
| 2018-19 | Capitals | 81 | 13 | 23 | 36 | -1 | 37 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 16:32 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 8.0% | 49.0% |
| 2019-20 | Capitals | 69 | 16 | 23 | 39 | 3 | 48 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 17:01 | 1 | 1 | 151 | 10.6% | 51.9% |
| 2020-21 | Capitals | 44 | 8 | 15 | 23 | -1 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 16:21 | 2 | 0 | 69 | 11.6% | 50.4% |
| 2021-22 | Capitals | 72 | 13 | 18 | 31 | -4 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:07 | 2 | 1 | 116 | 11.2% | 49.5% |
| 2022-23 | Capitals | 60 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -1 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 6.9% | 54.6% |
| 2022-23 | Avalanche | 24 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:40 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 7.7% | 51.0% |
| 2023-24 | Penguins | 82 | 15 | 16 | 31 | -1 | 32 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 15:58 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 9.7% | 52.3% |
| 2024-25 | Penguins | 17 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 14.8% | 56.0% |
| 2024-25 | Capitals | 63 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -1 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 7.8% | 51.0% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 68 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:27 | 2 | 0 | 67 | 7.5% | 54.0% |
| 2026-27 | Panthers | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:03 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 13.0% | 41.4% |
| 84-G proj | Panthers | 84 | 10 | 24 | 34 | — | 28 | — | 2 | — | 15:35 | — | — | 119 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 37 that is -8%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2025-25) · Adam Lowry (2025-25) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Sam Steel (2025-25) · Teddy Blueger (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs DET | |||||
| P3 16:29 | EV | Goal | Eller (Mikkola) → 4-4 | Eller · Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Bennett · Schwindt Jones · Ekblad · Forsling · Mikkola | Copp · DeBrincat · Raymond · Kasper · Finnie · Brandsegg-Nygård Chiarot · Faulk · Seider · Wallinder Gibson (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P2 04:17 | EV | Goal | Eller (Verhaeghe, Ekblad) → 2-0 | Eller · Verhaeghe · Reinhart Ekblad · Forsling | Monahan · Johnson · Knies Gudbranson · Provorov · Fabbro Talbot (G) |
| Nov 2 · vs DET | |||||
| P2 15:25 | SH | Assist | Ekblad (Hathaway, Eller) → 2-2 | Eller · Hathaway · Bennett · Tkachuk Gudas · Ekblad · Forsling · Mikkola | Arvidsson · Kolesar · DeBrincat · Dries · Raymond · Mazur Chiarot · Seider Tarasov (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs WPG | |||||
| P3 13:33 | EV | Assist | Lundell (Eller, Luostarinen) → 4-2 | Eller · Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Luostarinen · Lundell · Vilmanis Ekblad · Forsling | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Barron · Mercer · Perfetti DeMelo · Fleury · Samberg · Pionk Daws (G) |
| Oct 25 · @ CHI | |||||
| P3 17:37 | EV | Goal | Eller (Ekblad) → 3-2 | Lundell · Eller · Verhaeghe Ekblad · Forsling | Frondell · Greene · Bertuzzi Kaiser · Levshunov |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Lars over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Reinhart FLA | 75 | 10 | |
| Aaron Ekblad FLA | 74 | 10 | |
| Gustav Forsling FLA | 70 | 10 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe FLA | 69 | 10 | |
| Niko Mikkola FLA | 66 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats