Matthew Knies
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 45?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points11 × 0.5+5.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots121 × 0.1+12.1
- PIM21 × 0.05+1.1
- ice time (min)1519 × 0.01+15.2
- total108 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242108 = 45/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 108 points is 45 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for CBJ.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.7% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.6% (411 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.7%, worth PD −2.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 80 | 15 | 20 | 35 | 9 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13:41 | 3 | 0 | 115 | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 78 | 29 | 29 | 58 | 7 | 43 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 18:31 | 6 | 1 | 152 | 19.1% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Maple Leafs | 79 | 23 | 43 | 66 | -30 | 29 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 18:48 | 2 | 0 | 140 | 16.4% | 16.7% |
| 2026-27 | Blue Jackets | 17 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 18:15 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 11.5% | 55.6% |
| 84-G proj | Blue Jackets | 84 | 15 | 27 | 42 | — | 31 | — | 15 | — | 16:50 | — | — | 134 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Anton Lundell (2025-25) · Trevor Zegras (2025-25) · Jonatan Berggren (2025-25) · Boone Jenner (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs TBL | |||||
| P1 12:20 | PP | Goal | Knies (Johnson, Monahan) → 1-1 | Coyle · Monahan · Nichushkin · Olivier · Johnson · Knies Werenski · Provorov · Fabbro | Sabourin · Guentzel · Hagel · Viel · Geekie McDonagh · Hedman · Crozier · Moser Hildeby (G) |
| Nov 6 · @ BUF | |||||
| P3 18:21 | PP | Assist | Werenski (Knies, Johnson) → 2-5 | Lorentz · Johnson · Sillinger · Knies · Fantilli · Williams Werenski · Fabbro · Christiansen · Mateychuk | Malenstyn · Thompson · Krebs · Kulich · Benson Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power · Zellweger Luukkonen (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs DAL | |||||
| P3 16:46 | EV | Assist | Werenski (Johnson, Knies) → 1-1 | Coyle · Monahan · Olivier · Johnson · Sillinger · Knies Severson · Werenski · Provorov · Mateychuk | Perron · Hintz · Robertson · Hyry Myers · Lindell · Harley · Bichsel DeSmith (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ PHI | |||||
| P1 13:44 | EV | Assist | Mateychuk (Olivier, Knies) → 3-0 | Coyle · Olivier · Knies Christiansen · Mateychuk | Cates · Michkov · Martone York · Drysdale Vladar (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Matthew over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Johnson CBJ | 134 | 10 | |
| Adam Fantilli CBJ | 122 | 10 | |
| Zach Werenski CBJ | 114 | 10 | |
| Damon Severson CBJ | 70 | 10 | |
| Charlie Coyle CBJ | 67 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats