Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 35?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals16 × 3+48
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots89 × 0.1+8.9
- PIM10 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)910 × 0.01+9.1
- total85 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24285 = 35/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 85 points is 35 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 9:30/game over the last 6, down 19% from 11:42 earlier in the season.
- Off the net: 0.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.4 before — chances have dried up.
- Availability: played 13 of 15 for ANA — missed 2 games (2026-10-19, 2026-10-29).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +1.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.7% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.8% (81 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.9%, worth PD +1.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Ducks | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Ducks | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Ducks | 20 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 29 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 3.2% | 39.3% |
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 17 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 16.7% | 44.4% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 16 | 16 | 32 | — | 24 | — | 2 | — | 12:38 | — | — | 112 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 · @ CGY | |||||
| P3 19:46 | EV | Goal | #? → 5-3 | Granlund · Washe Helleson · LaCombe | Farabee · Coronato · Gridin Nemec · Parekh Wolf (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs OTT | |||||
| P2 19:18 | PP | Assist | #? (Luneau, Nesterenko) → 3-3 | Killorn · Nesterenko · McQueen Luneau | Pinto · Greig Sanderson · Zub Johansson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nikita over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roger McQueen ANA | 43 | 9 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov ANA | 38 | 10 | |
| Noah Warren ANA | 36 | 10 | |
| Jackson LaCombe ANA | 35 | 10 | |
| Tristan Luneau ANA | 35 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats