Noah Laba
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 26?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals7 × 3+21
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots67 × 0.1+6.7
- PIM50 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1223 × 0.01+12.2
- total63 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24263 = 26/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 63 points is 26 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −1.9
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.1% (73 shots before this season) — that's 2.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.1 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.4%, worth PD −1.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Rangers | 74 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 2 | 31 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 13:28 | 1 | 0 | 73 | 12.3% | 50.8% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0% | 56.6% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 7 | 21 | 28 | — | 47 | — | 3 | — | 14:47 | — | — | 102 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 13:53 | EV | Assist | Chmelar (Laba) → 3-0 | Zibanejad · Lafrenière · Rempe · Chmelar · Laba · Perreault Pettersson · Gavrikov · Fox | Samoskevich · Winterton · Nyman · Meyers Larsson · Dunn · Mahura · Ottavainen Grubauer (G) · Daccord (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ OTT | |||||
| P2 10:07 | SH | Assist | Cuylle (Laba, Fox) → 1-3 | Laba · Cuylle Fox · Pettersson | Stützle · Batherson · Cozens · Halliday Sanderson Johansson (G) |
| P3 15:32 | EV | Assist | Dorofeyev (Cuylle, Laba) → 4-5 | Dorofeyev · Laba · Cuylle Fox · Gavrikov | Batherson · Cozens · Foegele Matinpalo · Kleven Johansson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Noah over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cuylle NYR | 101 | 10 | |
| Braden Schneider NYR | 67 | 10 | |
| Marcus Pettersson NYR | 57 | 10 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen NYR | 52 | 10 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov NYR | 50 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats