Oliver Bjorkstrand
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 45?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points8 × 0.5+4
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots122 × 0.1+12.2
- PIM21 × 0.05+1.1
- ice time (min)972 × 0.01+9.7
- total109 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242109 = 45/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 109 points is 45 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 12:52/game over the last 6, up 17% from 10:59 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.6
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 20.7% shooting on 29 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.7% (1512 shots before this season) — that's 2.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.4 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.6%, worth PD +3.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Cuylle 10.3%, Fox 6.7%, Kartye 19.4%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Blue Jackets | 12 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 16.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Blue Jackets | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 2 | 0 | 55 | 10.9% | 100.0% |
| 2017-18 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 11 | 29 | 40 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 14:18 | 2 | 0 | 163 | 6.8% | 12.5% |
| 2018-19 | Blue Jackets | 77 | 23 | 13 | 36 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12:20 | 1 | 0 | 161 | 14.3% | 38.5% |
| 2019-20 | Blue Jackets | 49 | 21 | 15 | 36 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 17:56 | 5 | 0 | 162 | 13.0% | 31.6% |
| 2020-21 | Blue Jackets | 56 | 18 | 26 | 44 | -15 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17:37 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 12.6% | 42.9% |
| 2021-22 | Blue Jackets | 80 | 28 | 29 | 57 | -35 | 16 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 17:57 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 13.0% | 43.5% |
| 2022-23 | Kraken | 81 | 20 | 25 | 45 | -1 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 15:37 | 1 | 1 | 198 | 10.1% | 30.5% |
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 82 | 20 | 39 | 59 | -20 | 12 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 16:11 | 3 | 0 | 186 | 10.8% | 32.1% |
| 2024-25 | Kraken | 61 | 16 | 21 | 37 | -1 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 15:28 | 1 | 0 | 124 | 12.9% | 28.6% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 14:03 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 80 | 12 | 20 | 32 | -14 | 16 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 13:38 | 1 | 0 | 130 | 9.2% | 43.8% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11:35 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 20 | 18 | 39 | — | 29 | — | 12 | — | 12:56 | — | — | 127 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Chris Kreider (2025-25) · Artturi Lehkonen (2025-25) · Valeri Nichushkin (2025-25) · Tyler Bertuzzi (2025-25) · Bo Horvat (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 09:05 | PP | Assist | #? (Fox, Bjorkstrand) → 2-0 | Miller · Bjorkstrand · Cuylle Fox | Stephenson · Winterton Montour · Evans Daccord (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs PHI | |||||
| P3 15:21 | EV | Assist | #? (Fox, Bjorkstrand) → 3-2 | Miller · Bjorkstrand Gavrikov · Fox | Couturier · Acciari · Barkey Sanheim · Drysdale Woll (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs STL | |||||
| P3 09:01 | EV | Goal | #? (Tolvanen, Cuylle) → 2-0 | Tolvanen · Cuylle Morrow · Smits | Berggren · McMichael · McTavish Fowler · Jiricek Hofer (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ OTT | |||||
| P2 12:54 | EV | Assist | Miller (Fox, Bjorkstrand) → 2-4 | Miller · Kartye · Bjorkstrand Fox · Gavrikov | Amadio · Foegele · Greig Yakemchuk · Matinpalo Johansson (G) |
| Oct 22 · @ TOR | |||||
| P2 02:37 | EV | Goal | Bjorkstrand (Dowling, Fox) → 2-2 | Raddysh · Bjorkstrand · Dowling Fox · Gavrikov | Sissons · Lettieri · McKenna Blankenburg · Ekman-Larsson Bobrovsky (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Oliver over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cuylle NYR | 56 | 10 | |
| Adam Fox NYR | 40 | 10 | |
| Marcus Pettersson NYR | 38 | 10 | |
| Tye Kartye NYR | 36 | 9 | |
| J.T. Miller NYR | 35 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats