Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 69?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals9 × 3+27
- proj assists45 × 1+45
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals9 × 0.25+2.3
- shots112 × 0.1+11.2
- PIM37 × 0.05+1.9
- ice time (min)2170 × 0.01+21.7
- total114 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166114 = 69/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 114 points is 69 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for BUF.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.3% shooting on 24 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.6% (507 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 6.4%, worth PD +0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Sabres | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:05 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Sabres | 79 | 4 | 31 | 35 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 23:48 | 1 | 1 | 130 | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Sabres | 76 | 6 | 27 | 33 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 22:55 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Sabres | 79 | 7 | 33 | 40 | -13 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 21:19 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Sabres | 81 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Sabres | 19 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:43 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Sabres | 84 | 9 | 45 | 54 | — | 41 | — | 0 | — | 23:08 | — | — | 109 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Tyson Barrie (2023-23) · Seth Jones (2025-25) · Thomas Harley (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ CHI | |||||
| P1 09:00 | EV | Goal | Power (Norris, Quinn) → 1-0 | Zucker · Norris · Quinn · Doan · Kulich Crevier · Power · Zellweger | Kane · Mangiapane · Greenway · Smith · Greene · Frondell Vlasic · Kaiser · Mastro · Rinzel Knight (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P1 06:50 | EV | Assist | Quinn (Power, #?) → 1-0 | Zucker · Norris · Quinn · Doan · Kulich Power · Zellweger · Metsa | Coyle · Garland · Olivier · Sillinger · Knies · Fantilli Severson · Werenski · Fabbro · Christiansen Greaves (G) |
| P1 18:10 | EV | Assist | Norris (Power) → 2-1 | Norris · Quinn · Ostlund Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power · Zellweger | Knies · Fantilli Provorov · Fabbro · Christiansen · Mateychuk Greaves (G) |
| P2 04:30 | EV | Assist | Dahlin (Krebs, Power) → 3-1 | Thompson · Krebs · Quinn · Doan · Ostlund · Benson Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power · Metsa | Monahan · Lorentz · Olivier · Voronkov · Sillinger · Williams Fabbro · Christiansen Greaves (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ SJS | |||||
| P2 00:50 | EV | Assist | Zellweger (Helenius, Power) → 1-0 | Benson · Malenstyn · Helenius Zellweger · Samuelsson · Power | Marchment · Misa · Gaudette Orlov · Cagnoni Askarov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Owen over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olen Zellweger BUF | 82 | 10 | |
| Zach Benson BUF | 80 | 10 | |
| Noah Ostlund BUF | 79 | 10 | |
| Tage Thompson BUF | 73 | 10 | |
| Jack Quinn BUF | 73 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats