Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 36?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists15 × 1+15
- PP points12 × 0.5+6
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots108 × 0.1+10.8
- PIM78 × 0.05+3.9
- ice time (min)985 × 0.01+9.9
- total88 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24288 = 36/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 88 points is 36 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (14 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 14 of 15 for ANA — missed 1 game (2026-10-10).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.1% shooting on 18 shots against a league forward baseline of 13.5% — no career track record yet — that's 0.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.0%, worth PD −0.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11:44 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 11.1% | 37.3% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 14 | 15 | 29 | — | 61 | — | 8 | — | 13:19 | — | — | 123 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 20 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs PIT | |||||
| P3 05:12 | PP | Assist | Luneau (Killorn, McQueen) → 4-0 | Killorn · Vatrano · Caulfield · Nesterenko · Myatovic · McQueen · Washe Helleson · LaCombe · Luneau | Malkin · Crosby · Robertson · Chinakhov · Kindel Letang · Stastney · Korczak · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs OTT | |||||
| P3 15:19 | PP | Goal | McQueen (Caulfield, Luneau) → 6-3 | Killorn · Granlund · Caulfield · Nesterenko · Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke · McQueen LaCombe · Luneau | Amadio · Pinto · Greig · Stützle Chabot · Spence · Kleven · Matinpalo Johansson (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs BUF | |||||
| P1 10:38 | EV | Goal | McQueen (Colangelo, Jensen) → 3-1 | Granlund · Vatrano · Colangelo · Malott · Sennecke · McQueen Jensen · Hinds · Luneau · Mitchell | Zucker · Norris · McLeod · Quinn · Doan · Ostlund Samuelsson · Dahlin · Power · Zellweger Ellis (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Roger over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Malott ANA | 51 | 10 | |
| Tristan Luneau ANA | 49 | 10 | |
| Nikita Nesterenko ANA | 43 | 8 | |
| Jackson LaCombe ANA | 42 | 10 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov ANA | 41 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats