Roman Kantserov
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 63?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals33 × 3+99
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots145 × 0.1+14.5
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1551 × 0.01+15.5
- total152 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242152 = 63/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 152 points is 63 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for CHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +7.7
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 29.0% shooting on 31 shots against a league forward baseline of 13.5% — no career track record yet — that's 4.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.2 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 18.8%, worth PD +7.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His linemates (Bedard 13.5%, Bertuzzi 11.1%, Levshunov 4.2%, Kane 4.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Blackhawks | 19 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 18:33 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 28.1% | 44.5% |
| 84-G proj | Blackhawks | 84 | 33 | 17 | 50 | — | 34 | — | 8 | — | 17:09 | — | — | 146 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs BUF | |||||
| P1 12:22 | PP | Assist | #? (Bedard, Kantserov) → 1-1 | Kane · Bedard · Kantserov Rinzel | McLeod · Benson Timmins · Samuelsson Lyon (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ CAR | |||||
| P3 05:56 | EV | Goal | #? (Bedard, Vlasic) → 1-7 | Bertuzzi · Bedard Vlasic · Korchinski | Jankowski · Ehlers · Jarvis Slavin · Chatfield Kochetkov (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ TBL | |||||
| P3 19:10 | EV | Goal | #? (Rinzel, Mastro) → 1-4 | Bertuzzi · Bedard Mastro · Rinzel | Kucherov · Point · Mikheyev Carlson · D'Astous Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Nov 4 · @ FLA | |||||
| P2 16:48 | EV | Goal | #? (Mastro, Bedard) → 1-3 | Bertuzzi · Bedard Cole · Mastro | Eller · Luostarinen · Lundell Ekblad · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
| Nov 2 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 07:05 | EV | Goal | #? (Bedard) → 2-0 | Donato · Bedard Mastro · Levshunov | Kadri · Landeskog · Roy Toews · Makar Blackwood (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Roman over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bedard CHI | 156 | 9 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi CHI | 91 | 10 | |
| Artyom Levshunov CHI | 70 | 10 | |
| Patrick Kane CHI | 67 | 7 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser CHI | 65 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats