Ryan Lomberg
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 18?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals6 × 3+18
- proj assists8 × 1+8
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots106 × 0.1+10.6
- PIM11 × 0.05+0.6
- ice time (min)718 × 0.01+7.2
- total44 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24244 = 18/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 44 points is 18 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 7:20/game over the last 6, down 17% from 8:50 earlier in the season.
- Off the net: 0.7 SOG/game lately vs 1.9 before — chances have dried up.
- Availability: played 13 of 14 for CBJ — missed 1 game (2026-11-06).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −2.3
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 9.0% (465 shots before this season) — that's 1.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.7 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 6.8%, worth PD −2.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Flames | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:15 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Flames | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Panthers | 34 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 55 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 4 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 9.9% | 14.3% |
| 2022-23 | Panthers | 82 | 12 | 8 | 20 | -1 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 1 | 0 | 134 | 9.0% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 75 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 80 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9:32 | 2 | 0 | 68 | 7.4% | 29.4% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 80 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -5 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:39 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 4.5% | 31.3% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 57 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:03 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 7.5% | 38.5% |
| 2026-27 | Blue Jackets | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:21 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Blue Jackets | 84 | 6 | 8 | 14 | — | 26 | — | 0 | — | 11:30 | — | — | 118 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ryan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Del Bel Belluz CBJ | 36 | 6 | |
| Jake Christiansen CBJ | 29 | 9 | |
| Denton Mateychuk CBJ | 28 | 10 | |
| Danton Heinen CBJ | 28 | 6 | |
| Damon Severson CBJ | 22 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats